AFL Round 15 2026 Review: Fremantle and Collingwood Deliver
Round 15 saw the Tip Jar deliver five correct predictions, a solid return for a weekend that contained some unexpected turns. The model's assessment of market value proved insightful in several games, particularly when identifying teams that were perhaps underestimated. While two upsets kept the round interesting, many of the expected winners held their ground.
The Tip Jar tipped 5 from 7 in Round 15 and sits at 96 from 128 (75.0 percent) for the season.
Fremantle vs Geelong
Fremantle by 9. The Tip Jar had the Dockers.
Fremantle held sway across most parts of the ground, generating more scoring opportunities throughout the game. Geelong's efficiency in front of goal kept them in contention, but the Dockers' sustained pressure eventually told. Luke Jackson earned the three Brownlow votes.
Gold Coast vs Hawthorn
Hawthorn by 16. The model had the Hawks rated higher than the market.
Hawthorn secured a win on the road, converting their chances more effectively than the Suns. Gold Coast moved the ball well and won the ball at the contest, but it was Hawthorn's ability to finish that proved the difference, as the model suggested. Jai Newcombe received three votes.
Adelaide vs Melbourne
Adelaide by 17. The Crows were the Tip Jar pick.
Adelaide's control over chance creation and their strong finishing helped them secure a comfortable win at home. Despite Melbourne's work at the contest, the Crows maintained enough ball retention and applied consistent pressure to dictate the terms. Mark Keane was awarded three votes.
Greater Western Sydney vs Carlton
Carlton by 23. The Tip Jar had Greater Western Sydney.
Carlton proved too strong on the day, controlling the contest and territory against the Giants. The Blues' ability to generate opportunities and convert them defied the Tip Jar's prediction for Greater Western Sydney. George Hewett was the clear standout with three votes.
Collingwood vs Port Adelaide
Collingwood by 27. The model had the Magpies rated higher than the market.
Collingwood demonstrated their scoring prowess at the MCG, making the most of their forward forays. Despite Port Adelaide's efforts to win the ball, the Magpies' superior finishing proved the difference, aligning with the model's assessment. Nick Daicos earned three Brownlow votes.
Richmond vs North Melbourne
North Melbourne by 25. The Tip Jar correctly picked the Kangaroos.
North Melbourne secured a solid victory, dominating the creation of scoring opportunities and winning the ball at the contest. Richmond struggled to find avenues to goal, allowing the Kangaroos to control the game for much of the afternoon. Caleb Daniel was awarded the three votes.
St Kilda vs Western Bulldogs
Western Bulldogs by 22. The Tip Jar had St Kilda.
The Western Bulldogs delivered an unexpected performance under the roof, proving more efficient with their scoring chances. St Kilda won the ball and territory, but the Bulldogs converted their opportunities more effectively, leading to an upset. Marcus Bontempelli was a clear three-vote getter.
FAQ
Which teams were underrated by the market this round?
The model saw Hawthorn, Collingwood, and Carlton as stronger chances than the market suggested. Hawthorn and Collingwood delivered wins, while Carlton also defied market expectations.
What was the closest margin prediction for Round 15?
The model's margin prediction for the Fremantle versus Geelong game was particularly accurate, with a projected margin of 14 points and an actual result of 9 points.
Who topped the Brownlow votes for Round 15?
Luke Jackson, Jai Newcombe, Mark Keane, George Hewett, Nick Daicos, Caleb Daniel, and Marcus Bontempelli each received three votes in their respective matches.
