Stats-modelled tips to beat the average pub punter
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Stats-modelled AFL predictions for the 2026 season: match tips and margins, Brownlow Medal vote projections, SuperCoach and AFL Fantasy scores, the predicted ladder, and player stat projections. Enable JavaScript to use the full interactive app.
Updated 2026-10-19.
AFL Fantasy and SuperCoach projections on Footy Tip Jar are derived from per-player stat projections rolled up into each scoring system official weights. AFL Fantasy uses simple per-stat scoring (3 per kick, 2 per handball, 3 per mark, 4 per tackle, 6 per goal, 1 per behind, 1 per hitout). SuperCoach uses statistician-curated weights with the official 3300-point-per-game rule applied. Player projections start from an EWMA baseline of 2024-2025 actuals, then adjust for opponent strength (35%), recent form (15%), time-on-ground signal (10%), individual matchup effects (15%), baseline anchor (20%), and rust/return penalty (5%). Captain picks rank players by projected score each round. The Calculator tab surfaces trade targets by combining projected score with current price and breakeven.
