Footy Tip Jar AFL Model Proof and Backtest
2026 season to date: 112 of 150 tips correct (75%), updated 2026-07-12.
Mean absolute margin error: 21.4 points, 40.7% of tips within 12 points.
About Footy Tip Jar model proof
Footy Tip Jar prediction model was backtested across the full 2025 AFL season using strict walkforward methodology, for every match, the model was retrained on data available before that match and asked to predict the outcome. This catches lookahead bias. The backtest covered all 207 home-and-away matches plus finals. Tip accuracy, margin MAE, and value-pick performance are all reported per round so calibration over time is visible.