Stats-modelled tips to beat the average pub punter

2025 Season Results

72.7%

157 out of 216 tips correct

Better than most pub comp winners, newspaper experts, and office gun tippers

Verified against actual footy results, round by round

72.7%

2025 Accuracy

157 of 216 tips

75%

Close Games

correct when odds near 50/50

56%

Upset Tips

10 of 18 against the favourite

How the model works & methodology details

View Tips Season Tracker

Footy Tip Jar

Stats-modelled AFL predictions for the 2026 season: match tips and margins, Brownlow Medal vote projections, SuperCoach and AFL Fantasy scores, the predicted ladder, and player stat projections. Enable JavaScript to use the full interactive app.

Footy Tip Jar AFL Model Proof and Backtest

2026 season to date: 154 of 207 tips correct (74%), updated 2026-08-26.

Mean absolute margin error: 21.1 points, 41.1% of tips within 12 points.

About Footy Tip Jar model proof

Footy Tip Jar prediction model was backtested across the full 2025 AFL season using strict walkforward methodology, for every match, the model was retrained on data available before that match and asked to predict the outcome. This catches lookahead bias. The backtest covered all 207 home-and-away matches plus finals. Tip accuracy, margin MAE, and value-pick performance are all reported per round so calibration over time is visible.