2026 Brownlow Medal Predictor
2026 Brownlow Medal Predictions
Updated 2026-10-19.
Nick Daicos won the 2026 Brownlow Medal with 47 votes.
Top 20 Vote-Getters
- Nick Daicos 2026 Brownlow odds (Collingwood) - 47 votes
- Bailey Smith 2026 Brownlow odds (Geelong) - 36 votes
- Marcus Bontempelli 2026 Brownlow odds (Western Bulldogs) - 34 votes
- Max Gawn 2026 Brownlow odds (Melbourne) - 28 votes
- Harry Sheezel 2026 Brownlow odds (North Melbourne) - 27 votes
- Patrick Cripps 2026 Brownlow odds (Carlton) - 27 votes
- Will Ashcroft 2026 Brownlow odds (Brisbane Lions) - 27 votes
- Isaac Heeney 2026 Brownlow odds (Sydney) - 26 votes
- Zak Butters 2026 Brownlow odds (Port Adelaide) - 26 votes
- Izak Rankine 2026 Brownlow odds (Adelaide) - 25 votes
- Clayton Oliver 2026 Brownlow odds (Greater Western Sydney) - 23 votes
- Jason Horne-Francis 2026 Brownlow odds (Port Adelaide) - 22 votes
- Jai Newcombe 2026 Brownlow odds (Hawthorn) - 21 votes
- Jordan Dawson 2026 Brownlow odds (Adelaide) - 21 votes
- Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera 2026 Brownlow odds (St Kilda) - 21 votes
- Kysaiah Pickett 2026 Brownlow odds (Melbourne) - 20 votes
- Lachie Neale 2026 Brownlow odds (Brisbane Lions) - 20 votes
- Luke Davies-Uniacke 2026 Brownlow odds (North Melbourne) - 19 votes
- Luke Jackson 2026 Brownlow odds (Fremantle) - 19 votes
- Errol Gulden 2026 Brownlow odds (Sydney) - 17 votes
2026 Brownlow Medal leader at every AFL club
- Collingwood: Nick Daicos, 49 predicted votes
- Geelong: Bailey Smith, 38 predicted votes
- Western Bulldogs: Marcus Bontempelli, 30 predicted votes
- Brisbane Lions: Will Ashcroft, 28 predicted votes
- Carlton: Patrick Cripps, 28 predicted votes
- Melbourne: Max Gawn, 27 predicted votes
- North Melbourne: Harry Sheezel, 26 predicted votes
- Port Adelaide: Zak Butters, 24 predicted votes
- Sydney: Isaac Heeney, 24 predicted votes
- Adelaide: Izak Rankine, 24 predicted votes
- Hawthorn: Jai Newcombe, 21 predicted votes
- Fremantle: Luke Jackson, 20 predicted votes
- Greater Western Sydney: Clayton Oliver, 18 predicted votes
- St Kilda: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, 18 predicted votes
- West Coast: Harley Reid, 14 predicted votes
- Gold Coast: Noah Anderson, 12 predicted votes
- Richmond: Tim Taranto, 8 predicted votes
- Essendon: Darcy Parish, 6 predicted votes
2026 Brownlow Medal odds and where the model sees value
- Footy Tip Jar prices every Brownlow Medal market off its own deterministic vote count, then compares that against the posted price. Odds shown are Sportsbet prices as at 11 September and may have changed. Value is our model probability multiplied by the price, so anything above 1.00 is a price we rate as too long.
Brownlow vote threshold markets
- To Poll a Vote. Our count has 51 of 130 priced runners clearing it: Mark Keane on 3 votes ($1.27), Beau McCreery on 3 votes ($1.54), Tim Membrey on 3 votes ($1.15). Best value: Sam Darcy at $3.90, 77.8% in our simulation, value 3.03; Esava Ratugolea at $2.95, 94.8% in our simulation, value 2.80.
- To Poll 10+ Votes. Our count has 22 of 41 priced runners clearing it: Clayton Oliver on 18 votes ($1.12), Shai Bolton on 15 votes ($1.06), Sam Walsh on 14 votes ($1.01). Best value: Logan Morris at $19.00, 40.0% in our simulation, value 7.59; John Noble at $7.50, 75.5% in our simulation, value 5.67.
- To Poll 15+ Votes. Our count has 11 of 26 priced runners clearing it: Max Gawn on 27 votes ($1.01), Harry Sheezel on 26 votes ($1.02), Zak Butters on 24 votes ($1.02). Best value: Jack Gunston at $14.00, 26.3% in our simulation, value 3.69; Clayton Oliver at $3.60, 89.7% in our simulation, value 3.23.
- To Poll 20+ Votes. Our count has 10 of 20 priced runners clearing it: Max Gawn on 27 votes ($1.31), Harry Sheezel on 26 votes ($1.61), Zak Butters on 24 votes ($2.10). Best value: Luke Jackson at $6.50, 56.8% in our simulation, value 3.69; Max Holmes at $12.50, 29.5% in our simulation, value 3.69.
- To Poll 25+ Votes. Our count has 4 of 14 priced runners clearing it: Patrick Cripps on 28 votes ($1.46), Will Ashcroft on 28 votes ($1.87), Max Gawn on 27 votes ($4.00). Best value: Zak Butters at $16.00, 43.8% in our simulation, value 7.00; Izak Rankine at $10.50, 43.7% in our simulation, value 4.59.
- To Poll 30+ Votes. Our count has 2 of 9 priced runners clearing it: Bailey Smith on 38 votes ($1.16), Marcus Bontempelli on 30 votes ($1.31). Best value: Max Gawn at $41.00, 23.2% in our simulation, value 9.53; Will Ashcroft at $21.00, 33.3% in our simulation, value 6.99.
Brownlow top 3, top 5 and top 10 finish markets
- Top 3 Finish. Nick Daicos is not priced in this market. Our count finishes 2 of 10 priced runners inside it: Bailey Smith on 38 votes ($1.07), Marcus Bontempelli on 30 votes ($1.15). Best value: Harry Sheezel at $67.00, 6.9% in our simulation, value 4.61; Max Gawn at $34.00, 11.8% in our simulation, value 4.00.
- Top 5 Finish. Nick Daicos is not priced in this market. Our count finishes 4 of 15 priced runners inside it: Bailey Smith on 38 votes ($1.01), Marcus Bontempelli on 30 votes ($1.03), Will Ashcroft on 28 votes ($2.00). Best value: Zak Butters at $34.00, 12.3% in our simulation, value 4.18; Harry Sheezel at $10.00, 30.0% in our simulation, value 3.00.
- Top 10 Finish. Our count finishes 7 of 21 priced runners inside it: Will Ashcroft on 28 votes ($1.07), Patrick Cripps on 28 votes ($1.05), Max Gawn on 27 votes ($1.83). Best value: Zak Butters at $5.00, 65.3% in our simulation, value 3.26; Luke Jackson at $13.00, 16.4% in our simulation, value 2.13.
- Top 20 Finish. Our count finishes 10 of 26 priced runners inside it: Max Gawn on 27 votes ($1.04), Harry Sheezel on 26 votes ($1.11), Zak Butters on 24 votes ($1.18). Best value: Clayton Oliver at $4.90, 69.7% in our simulation, value 3.42; Shai Bolton at $12.00, 25.8% in our simulation, value 3.10.
Brownlow group and special-field markets
- Group B: our count has Max Gawn on 27 votes, 49.8% in our simulation, priced $3.75. The market agrees, Max Gawn is favourite at $3.75.
- Group C: our count has Jack Gunston on 13 votes, 66.8% in our simulation, priced $3.00. The market favourite is Jacob van Rooyen at $2.50, so this is a disagreement.
- Most Votes Without Nick Daicos: our count has Bailey Smith on 38 votes, 89.1% in our simulation, priced $1.72. The market agrees, Bailey Smith is favourite at $1.72.
- Most Votes, Last 8 Rounds (rounds 17-24): our count has Izak Rankine on 19 votes, 45.0% in our simulation, priced $2.25. The market favourite is Nick Daicos at $2.00, so this is a disagreement.
Brownlow round of declared winner
- We make it Round 19, a 66.1% chance in our simulation, priced $13.00 for a value of 8.59. The market favourite is Round 21 at $2.50. The market settles on the round it becomes mathematically impossible for Daicos to lose or tie.
Brownlow winning margin
- Our count gives the winner a 11-vote margin, landing in the 11+ votes band at $2.12, 53.2% in our simulation. The market's shortest band is the same one at $2.12.
Brownlow specials the model rates a YES
- Nick Daicos to poll in 20+ games: we say YES (20 games), 56.8% in our simulation at $13.00, value 7.38.
- Nick Daicos to poll 49+ votes: we say YES (49 votes), 54.3% in our simulation at $11.00, value 5.97.
- Nick Daicos to poll 48+ votes: we say YES (49 votes), 62.9% in our simulation at $7.00, value 4.40.
- Nick Daicos polling 40 or more votes than the next highest for Collingwood: we say YES (by 41), 62.9% in our simulation at $6.00, value 3.77.
- Daicos brothers to poll 55+ votes combined: we say YES (57 votes), 69.4% in our simulation at $5.00, value 3.47.
- Nick Daicos to poll 47+ votes: we say YES (49 votes), 70.7% in our simulation at $4.00, value 2.83.
Where our Brownlow count disagrees with the market
- Group C: our count has Jack Gunston in front on 13 votes, a 66.8% shot in our simulation and priced $3.00, while the market favourite is Jacob van Rooyen at $2.50.
- Most Votes, Last 8 Rounds (rounds 17-24): our count has Izak Rankine in front on 19 votes, a 45.0% shot in our simulation and priced $2.25, while the market favourite is Nick Daicos at $2.00.
- Round of Declared Winner: we make it Round 19 at 66.1% ($13.00), while the market favours Round 21 at $2.50.
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About these Brownlow Medal predictions
Brownlow Medal predictions on Footy Tip Jar are produced by an XGBoost classifier that estimates each player's per-game probability of polling 3, 2, or 1 votes. The model uses ~90 features including projected disposals, contested possessions, score involvements, goal counts, win/loss context, team-relative shares, and position dummies. Per-game probabilities are normalised within each match, then combined via 2000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation across the full 23-round season to produce a leaderboard with projected total votes, win probability, and podium chances. Completed matches use deterministic argmax allocation; projected rounds use Monte Carlo because the game has not happened yet.
