Updated 2026-08-26.
About these Brownlow Medal predictions
Brownlow Medal predictions on Footy Tip Jar are produced by an XGBoost classifier that estimates each player's per-game probability of polling 3, 2, or 1 votes. The model uses ~90 features including projected disposals, contested possessions, score involvements, goal counts, win/loss context, team-relative shares, and position dummies. Per-game probabilities are normalised within each match, then combined via 2000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation across the full 23-round season to produce a leaderboard with projected total votes, win probability, and podium chances. Completed matches use deterministic argmax allocation; projected rounds use Monte Carlo because the game has not happened yet.
