Footy Tip Jar

Stats-modelled AFL predictions for the 2026 season: match tips and margins, Brownlow Medal vote projections, SuperCoach and AFL Fantasy scores, the predicted ladder, and player stat projections. Enable JavaScript to use the full interactive app.

2026 AFL Ladder Predictions and Premiership Odds

AFL Ladder 2026

Updated 2026-07-12.

Pos	Team	W	L	D	Pts	%
1	Fremantle	21	2	0	84	139.5
2	Hawthorn	17	5	1	70	122.7
3	Sydney	16	7	0	64	127.0
4	Adelaide	16	7	0	64	120.0
5	Geelong	15	8	0	60	122.7
6	Brisbane Lions	15	8	0	60	114.5
7	Greater Western Sydney	13	10	0	52	107.1
8	St Kilda	13	10	0	52	107.1
9	Melbourne	13	10	0	52	106.0
10	Collingwood	12	10	1	50	101.6
11	Western Bulldogs	12	11	0	48	94.8
12	Carlton	10	13	0	40	93.4
13	Gold Coast	9	14	0	36	92.7
14	Port Adelaide	8	15	0	32	99.2
15	North Melbourne	8	15	0	32	88.4
16	West Coast	4	19	0	16	69.8
17	Richmond	3	20	0	12	61.5
18	Essendon	1	22	0	4	64.3

Premiership Odds

Fremantle: 25.8% premiership chance, $3.9 fair odds
Hawthorn: 22.8% premiership chance, $4.4 fair odds
Sydney: 19.4% premiership chance, $5.2 fair odds
Geelong: 11.1% premiership chance, $9.0 fair odds
Adelaide: 10.3% premiership chance, $9.7 fair odds
Brisbane Lions: 8.0% premiership chance, $12.5 fair odds
St Kilda: 0.9% premiership chance, $108.7 fair odds
Collingwood: 0.7% premiership chance, $140.8 fair odds

About these AFL ladder predictions

The 2026 AFL ladder predictions are generated by simulating every remaining home-and-away match through the prediction model. Each team gets a projected wins, losses, draws, premiership-points total, and percentage. From the simulated standings, every team is assigned probabilities for finishing top 4 (double-chance), top 8 (any finals), winning the minor premiership, making the grand final, and winning the AFL premiership. Wooden-spoon odds are tracked at the foot of the ladder. After every completed round the predictions update, actuals replace projected results, and the team-strength model adjusts via 6-domain EWMA learning.