AFL Round 16 2026 Preview: Close Calls and Clear Favourites
This round presents a mix of clear favourites and one game where the outcome is genuinely hard to split. While several teams appear to have their measure of their opponents, the Gabba fixture between Brisbane and Sydney looks like it could go either way, with The Tip Jar leaning only narrowly to the home side.
Brisbane Lions vs Sydney
Brisbane to hold on by two at the Gabba in a tight one.
There is not much in this game. Brisbane's small edge in the contest might be enough to see them home, though this one could turn on the day.
Carlton vs West Coast
Carlton by thirty-five at Marvel, expected to create more chances.
Carlton is projected to create significantly more scoring chances, which should translate to a comfortable win. West Coast will need to be much more efficient than usual to trouble them under the roof. Adam Cerra looks good for disposals.
Collingwood vs Richmond
Collingwood by fifty-two against Richmond, with a large gap in scoring opportunities.
Collingwood has a substantial advantage in chance generation, suggesting a game where they control the scoring. Richmond will struggle to match their opponent's overall output at the MCG.
Fremantle vs Gold Coast
Fremantle by thirty at Optus, with a strong edge in scoring opportunities.
Fremantle's capacity to create scoring opportunities stands out in this matchup. Gold Coast will find it difficult to contain them on their home deck, giving the Dockers a clear path to victory.
Hawthorn vs Greater Western Sydney
Hawthorn by twenty-six at the G, set to control territory.
Hawthorn is expected to establish control over territory, which often sets up their scoring. Greater Western Sydney's finishing prowess might keep the margin from blowing out, but the Hawks should prevail.
North Melbourne vs Essendon
North Melbourne by twenty-five at Marvel, with better retention.
North Melbourne's projected retention of the ball is a key factor here. They should be able to move the ball more cleanly than Essendon, setting up scoring chances. Luke Davies-Uniacke is tipped for a good day.
Port Adelaide vs Adelaide
Adelaide by twenty-four in the Showdown, with a strong model rating.
The model rates Adelaide significantly higher than Port Adelaide, suggesting this Showdown could be one-sided. Adelaide's advantage in generating chances should be enough for a clear away win.
FAQ
Which game is the closest this round?
The model projects the Brisbane Lions versus Sydney game to be the tightest contest of Round 16, with only two points separating the teams.
Are there any big upsets predicted?
No major upsets are predicted this round. The biggest margin is Collingwood over Richmond by fifty-two points, and the only away tip is Adelaide by twenty-four points.
Which players are tipped for big disposal numbers?
Harry Sheezel from North Melbourne and Nick Daicos from Collingwood are projected to have high disposal counts, both expected to exceed one hundred fantasy points.
