AFL Round 16 2026 Review: Port Adelaide Defies Model
Round 16 saw several teams deliver on their projections with conviction, while one significant upset kept the round interesting. Fremantle’s dominant performance was a particular highlight, demonstrating a clear gap between them and their opponents. The model generally performed well, but the Adelaide Oval clash provided a reminder that football can always surprise.
The Tip Jar tipped 6 from 7 in Round 16 and sits at 102 from 135 (75.6 percent) for the season.
Brisbane Lions vs Sydney
Brisbane Lions by 43. The Tip Jar tipped the Lions.
The Lions delivered a strong performance at the Gabba, particularly in generating scoring chances. They converted well, ensuring Sydney could not stay in touch. Chad Warner was awarded the three votes.
Hawthorn vs Greater Western Sydney
Hawthorn by 14. The Tip Jar tipped the Hawks.
Hawthorn controlled the play through the middle, making good on the model's projection for territory. Greater Western Sydney found it difficult to get into the game. Jai Newcombe took the three votes.
Carlton vs West Coast
Carlton by 53. The Tip Jar tipped the Blues.
Carlton’s advantage in generating scoring chances was evident from the outset, leading to a comfortable win. West Coast struggled to match their intensity. Patrick Cripps received the three Brownlow votes.
Collingwood vs Richmond
Collingwood by 34. The model had Collingwood over the market, and the tip came in.
Collingwood secured a victory as expected, though Richmond managed to win the contest more often than projected. The Magpies were still able to generate plenty of scoring chances. Nick Daicos earned the three votes.
Port Adelaide vs Adelaide
Port Adelaide by 26. The model had Adelaide, but Port Adelaide took the win.
Port Adelaide defied the model, controlling the play across the ground and creating many scoring opportunities. Adelaide’s projected efficiency in front of goal did not materialise enough to make up the difference. Zak Butters was awarded the three votes.
North Melbourne vs Essendon
North Melbourne by 14. The Tip Jar tipped the Kangaroos.
North Melbourne pushed the ball forward effectively and created numerous chances, just as the model expected. Essendon struggled to put enough scoreboard pressure on. Harry Sheezel picked up the three Brownlow votes.
Fremantle vs Gold Coast
Fremantle by 51. The Tip Jar tipped the Dockers.
Fremantle’s control of the game was comprehensive, far exceeding the projected margin. They were particularly effective at moving the ball forward and finishing their chances. Andrew Brayshaw was awarded the three votes.
FAQ
Who got the most Brownlow votes in Round 16?
Chad Warner, Jai Newcombe, Patrick Cripps, Nick Daicos, Zak Butters, Harry Sheezel, and Andrew Brayshaw each received three votes this round.
Which player had the biggest fantasy impact in Round 16?
Harry Sheezel of North Melbourne had a standout round, scoring 173 fantasy points, significantly above his projection.
What was the biggest upset of Round 16?
Port Adelaide's win over Adelaide was the only upset this round where the underdog won, with the model having tipped Adelaide to win by a comfortable margin.
