AFL Round 17 2026 Review: Upsets Challenge the Form Guide
Round 17 saw a few models caught out, with several results going against the pre-game favouritism. While some close contests played out as expected, a handful of upsets meant it was not an easy week for prediction. Footy Tip Jar managed to hold its own, but not without some surprises.
Footy Tip Jar tipped 5 from 9 in Round 17 and sits at 107 from 144 (74.3 percent) for the season.
Geelong vs Brisbane Lions
Brisbane Lions by 22. The market had Geelong, the model had Geelong.
Geelong controlled much of the play, but Brisbane was far more effective when it mattered. The Lions' ability to convert their opportunities, against the model's projection for Geelong, proved the difference. Will Ashcroft received the three votes for a strong showing.
Sydney vs Western Bulldogs
Sydney by 35. The market had the Swans, the model had Sydney.
Sydney demonstrated why they were tipped, thoroughly controlling the contest and moving the ball with purpose. Their ability to generate scoring chances left the Bulldogs without an answer. Charlie Curnow was awarded the three votes.
West Coast vs Adelaide
Adelaide by 25. The market had the Crows, the model had Adelaide.
Adelaide was expected to win comfortably, and they did, taking control of the game through strong work in generating scoring opportunities. West Coast struggled to create chances of their own against the Crows. Jordan Dawson earned the three votes.
Hawthorn vs Melbourne
Melbourne by 35. The market had Hawthorn, the model had Hawthorn.
Melbourne defied the Footy Tip Jar projection, taking charge from the outset. Their strength in winning the ball at the contest proved too much for the Hawks, even with Hawthorn moving the ball well. Max Gawn was a clear three-vote getter.
Greater Western Sydney vs Fremantle
Greater Western Sydney by 21. The market had Fremantle, the model had Fremantle.
Greater Western Sydney pulled off a surprise victory, with their dominance around the ball proving crucial. Fremantle found it difficult to get into the game, despite some clean ball use. Jake Stringer earned the three votes.
Gold Coast vs Collingwood
Collingwood by 6. The market had Gold Coast, the model had Gold Coast.
Collingwood secured a narrow win against the tipped Gold Coast, largely by retaining possession effectively. While Gold Coast was efficient when they had the ball, Collingwood's overall control was enough. Nick Daicos was awarded the three votes.
Richmond vs Carlton
Carlton by 2. The market had Carlton, the model had Carlton.
Carlton secured the win as expected, though by a far tighter margin than predicted. Their control of the ball held up, despite Richmond's spirited effort and efficiency in front of goal. George Hewett received the three votes.
Essendon vs St Kilda
St Kilda by 67. The market had St Kilda, the model had St Kilda.
St Kilda delivered a comprehensive performance, significantly limiting Essendon's ability to create scoring chances. This led to a large victory, with Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera a clear three-vote choice.
Port Adelaide vs North Melbourne
Port Adelaide by 21. The market had Port Adelaide, the model had Port Adelaide.
Port Adelaide secured the win they were tipped for, largely by dominating in generating scoring chances. North Melbourne competed well for the ball, but could not translate that into scoreboard pressure. Jason Horne-Francis earned the three votes.
FAQ
Which players stood out with three Brownlow votes in Round 17?
Will Ashcroft, Charlie Curnow, Jordan Dawson, Max Gawn, Jake Stringer, Nick Daicos, George Hewett, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, and Jason Horne-Francis each earned the maximum three votes.
Were there any unexpected results in Round 17?
Indeed. Brisbane Lions' win over Geelong, Melbourne's comfortable victory against Hawthorn, Greater Western Sydney overcoming Fremantle, and Collingwood's tight success against Gold Coast were all upsets against the model's predictions.
How is Nick Daicos tracking in the Brownlow?
Nick Daicos extended his lead at the top of the Brownlow leaderboard with his three votes this round. He now sits on 33 votes, well ahead of Zak Butters on 28.