AFL Round 18 2026 Preview: Footy Tip Jar's Game-by-Game Analysis
Round Eighteen presents a few clear favourites, with Melbourne, the Brisbane Lions, and the Western Bulldogs all expected to secure comfortable wins. The model also suggests a couple of games will be hard-fought, with little separating the teams, notably the clash between Collingwood and North Melbourne under the roof. Away from home, Geelong and Hawthorn have been given the nod by Footy Tip Jar in what shapes as a test for their respective seasons.
Fremantle vs Sydney
Footy Tip Jar has Fremantle by 14 at Optus.
Fremantle should win the ball at the stoppages, and at Optus that usually decides it. Sydney's strength in finishing their chances will keep them in the game, but the Dockers are expected to generate enough opportunities to prevail.
Collingwood vs North Melbourne
Footy Tip Jar has Collingwood by 7 against North Melbourne.
This one could be tight, with North Melbourne expected to win the contest battle. Collingwood's ability to control territory and convert their chances should see them home, with Nick Daicos likely to be a factor.
St Kilda vs Port Adelaide
Footy Tip Jar has St Kilda by 13 at Marvel.
St Kilda is tipped to control the ball movement and create more scoring opportunities against Port Adelaide. While Port might generate chances, the Saints' efficiency in front of goal is expected to be the difference.
Greater Western Sydney vs Geelong
Footy Tip Jar has Geelong by 13 over Greater Western Sydney.
Geelong is projected to control the game through retaining possession and moving the ball efficiently. Greater Western Sydney will challenge at the contest, but the Cats, with Bailey Smith in good form, should prove too steady.
Carlton vs Hawthorn
Footy Tip Jar has Hawthorn by 8 over Carlton.
There is not much in this game according to the model, with Hawthorn tipped to get the better of Carlton. The Hawks' efficiency when moving the ball into attack is expected to give them the edge, even if the Blues create more chances.
Adelaide vs Gold Coast
Footy Tip Jar has Adelaide by 23 at Adelaide Oval.
Adelaide is expected to generate more scoring chances and finish them well against the Gold Coast. While the Suns will compete hard, particularly around the ball, the Crows should have too much firepower at home.
Western Bulldogs vs West Coast
Footy Tip Jar has Western Bulldogs by 44 over West Coast.
The Western Bulldogs are expected to create a significant number of scoring opportunities, which should translate into a comfortable win. West Coast's retention of the ball might keep them in it for periods, but the Bulldogs are tipped to be too strong.
Melbourne vs Richmond
Footy Tip Jar has Melbourne by 45 over Richmond.
Melbourne is projected to control the game and generate a high volume of scoring chances. Richmond will struggle to match the Dees' ability to move the ball forward and convert, particularly with Max Gawn leading the ruck.
Brisbane Lions vs Essendon
Footy Tip Jar has Brisbane by 57 at the Gabba.
The Brisbane Lions are expected to have a significant advantage in generating scoring opportunities against Essendon. At home, the Lions' ability to convert those chances should lead to a substantial win.
FAQ
Which match is predicted to be the closest contest in Round Eighteen?
Footy Tip Jar has Collingwood and North Melbourne playing out the tightest game of the round, with the Magpies tipped to win by a narrow margin.
Which team is forecast to have the largest winning margin this round?
The Brisbane Lions are projected to have the biggest win of Round Eighteen, with a comfortable margin predicted over Essendon at the Gabba.
Are any away teams tipped to win this round?
Yes, Footy Tip Jar is tipping Geelong to win on the road against Greater Western Sydney, and Hawthorn to beat Carlton at the MCG.