AFL Round 18 2026 Review: Fremantle and Hawthorn Impress
Round 18 was a strong showing for the Footy Tip Jar model, delivering eight correct predictions from nine games. While some results were quite decisive, the model's single miss of the weekend highlighted how even strong projections can be tested when one team finds a way to convert its chances unexpectedly.
Footy Tip Jar tipped 8 from 9 in Round 18 and sits at 115 from 153 (75.2 percent) for the season.
Multi of the week
Footy Tip Jar's Leg Lab multi of the week, locked at team announcement: Nick Daicos Disposals 30+ ($1.42), Ryan Byrnes Disposals 15+ ($1.86), Dion Prestia Disposals 20+ ($2.05), Adam Cerra Disposals 20+ ($2.00), Josh Worrell Disposals 20+ ($1.42), Bailey Smith Disposals 30+ ($1.62), Tom Liberatore Disposals 20+ ($1.21), Andrew McGrath Disposals 20+ ($1.75). Combined odds $52.75 at a 8 percent model win probability. The multi missed.
Fremantle vs Sydney
Fremantle by 38. The model had Fremantle, and the tip was correct.
Fremantle secured a strong victory over Sydney at Optus, effectively turning their forward entries into a substantial score. The Dockers were notably effective in generating chances. Murphy Reid earned the three votes.
Collingwood vs North Melbourne
Collingwood by 4. The model had Collingwood, and the tip was correct.
This was a tight contest, as Footy Tip Jar suggested it might be given the market's view on North Melbourne. Collingwood held on for the win, with Josh Daicos awarded the three votes for his efforts.
St Kilda vs Port Adelaide
St Kilda by 14. The model had St Kilda, and the tip was correct.
St Kilda secured a comfortable win over Port Adelaide, with their ability to finish chances making the difference. Callum Wilkie was recognised with the three Brownlow votes.
Greater Western Sydney vs Geelong
Greater Western Sydney by 13. The model had Geelong, and the tip was incorrect.
Greater Western Sydney pulled off an upset, managing to generate scoring chances more effectively than the model predicted. Despite the loss, Shaun Mannagh received the three votes.
Carlton vs Hawthorn
Hawthorn by 64. The model had Hawthorn, and the tip was correct.
Hawthorn showed conviction against Carlton, particularly effective at pushing the ball into their forward half. The model had Hawthorn winning, and Blake Hardwick earned the three votes.
Adelaide vs Gold Coast
Adelaide by 79. The model had Adelaide, and the tip was correct.
Adelaide recorded a significant win, far exceeding the projected margin. Their work around the ball and ability to create chances was clear. Izak Rankine was awarded the three votes.
Western Bulldogs vs West Coast
Western Bulldogs by 16. The model had Western Bulldogs, and the tip was correct.
The Western Bulldogs secured the win as expected, though West Coast managed to keep the margin closer than the model predicted. Marcus Bontempelli took home the three votes.
Melbourne vs Richmond
Melbourne by 46. The model had Melbourne, and the tip was correct.
Melbourne showed their strength, moving the ball into their attacking half with purpose. Jacob van Rooyen was recognised with the three Brownlow votes for his performance.
Brisbane Lions vs Essendon
Brisbane Lions by 90. The model had Brisbane Lions, and the tip was correct.
The Brisbane Lions had a powerful showing at the Gabba, generating a significant number of scoring opportunities. Will Ashcroft received the maximum three Brownlow votes.
FAQ
Which teams exceeded expectations in Round 18?
Hawthorn's large win against Carlton stood out, as did Adelaide and Brisbane Lions both winning by much larger margins than the model projected.
Was there a notable upset this round?
Greater Western Sydney's win over Geelong was the only missed tip for the model, proving that strong projections can sometimes be overturned.
Who received the most Brownlow votes this round?
Eight different players received the maximum three votes for their standout performances across the nine games.
