AFL Round 19 2026 Preview: Footy Tip Jar's Projections
The model is flagging a few very tight contests this Round 19, with two games projected by a single point. Collingwood versus Carlton and North Melbourne against Melbourne both present as extremely close matches, making for compelling viewing. Elsewhere, Footy Tip Jar sees some market value in Geelong, tipping them more comfortably than others might.
Multi of the week
Footy Tip Jar's Leg Lab multi of the week, locked at team announcement: Tom Atkins Disposals 15+ ($1.35), Jack Steele Disposals 20+ ($1.20), Liam Baker Disposals 15+ ($1.26), Dion Prestia Disposals 20+ ($1.80), Luke Davies-Uniacke Disposals 25+ ($1.86), Harvey Langford Disposals 15+ ($1.55), Stephen Coniglio Disposals 15+ ($1.42), Ryan Byrnes Disposals 15+ ($1.57). Combined odds $23.62 at a 12 percent model win probability.
Geelong vs St Kilda
AFL Round 19 2026: Footy Tip Jar has Geelong by 24, seeing more in them than the market.
The model sees Geelong as a more comfortable prospect than market odds suggest, particularly at home. While St Kilda might edge the contest, the Cats are projected to create and convert more scoring opportunities. Tom Atkins is expected to be busy.
Sydney vs Adelaide
AFL Round 19 2026: Sydney by 6 over Adelaide in a tight one at the SCG.
This looks like a close game, with very little separating the sides. Sydney is tipped to win the ball and move it effectively, but Adelaide's finishing might keep them in touch. It could well come down to who handles the pressure best on the day.
Port Adelaide vs Fremantle
AFL Round 19 2026: Fremantle by 22, tipped to control the attacking zones.
Fremantle is projected to control the attacking territory and create a significant number of scoring chances. While Port Adelaide will bring pressure, the Dockers should make the most of their opportunities. Jordan Clark is one to watch.
North Melbourne vs Melbourne
AFL Round 19 2026: Melbourne by 1 in a very tight contest against North Melbourne.
This is as close as games get, with the model seeing the teams evenly matched. Melbourne is expected to win the ball and territory, but North Melbourne's ability to score effectively could keep this one tight until the very end. Jack Steele could have a good outing.
Collingwood vs Carlton
AFL Round 19 2026: Collingwood by 1 in another close Melbourne derby.
Another match where there is little between the teams, though Collingwood has a slight edge in most attacking metrics. They are tipped to generate more scoring chances and convert them effectively. Carlton will challenge in the contest, but the Pies should hold on at the G.
West Coast vs Brisbane Lions
AFL Round 19 2026: Brisbane Lions by 27, with a strong showing expected at Optus.
The Lions are expected to have a comfortable win on the road, particularly through their ability to win the ball in the contest and create scoring opportunities. West Coast might hold onto the ball well, but it is unlikely to translate into enough scores.
Richmond vs Hawthorn
AFL Round 19 2026: Hawthorn by 57, projected for a big win against Richmond.
Hawthorn is tipped for a substantial victory, expected to control much of the play and generate many scoring opportunities. Their ability to convert these chances should see them score freely. Richmond's pressure might be high, but it is unlikely to stem the flow.
Gold Coast vs Western Bulldogs
AFL Round 19 2026: Gold Coast by 6, holding on at home against the Bulldogs.
This shapes as a close encounter, with Gold Coast tipped to get over the line at home. While the Bulldogs might create more scoring chances, the Suns are expected to control the ball and apply sufficient pressure to limit their opposition. Touk Miller could be influential.
Essendon vs Greater Western Sydney
AFL Round 19 2026: Greater Western Sydney by 39 in a comfortable away win.
Greater Western Sydney is expected to secure a decisive win on the road. They are projected to win the ball consistently and create a significant number of scoring opportunities. Essendon's pressure might be a factor, but the Giants should convert their chances more effectively.
FAQ
Which game is expected to be the closest in Round 19?
Both the Collingwood versus Carlton game and the North Melbourne against Melbourne match are projected to be decided by a single point, making them extremely close contests this round.
What's the biggest projected margin this round?
Hawthorn is tipped for the largest win, with Footy Tip Jar projecting them to beat Richmond by a substantial fifty-seven points.
Is there a game where the model disagrees with the market?
Yes, Footy Tip Jar rates Geelong as a stronger chance against St Kilda than current market odds suggest.
