AFL Round 19 2026 Review: Hawthorn's Big Win, Upsets Emerge
Round 19 delivered a few unexpected outcomes, with some teams defying both the model's projections and the market's consensus. While many of the stronger sides secured their wins, the upsets from Adelaide, the Western Bulldogs, and Essendon made for a captivating weekend of football. It was a round where a team's finishing efficiency often proved to be the deciding factor.
Footy Tip Jar tipped 6 from 9 in Round 19 and sits at 121 from 162 (74.7 percent) for the season.
Multi of the week
Footy Tip Jar's Leg Lab multi of the week, locked at team announcement: Tom Atkins Disposals 15+ ($1.35), Jack Steele Disposals 20+ ($1.20), Liam Baker Disposals 15+ ($1.26), Dion Prestia Disposals 20+ ($1.80), Luke Davies-Uniacke Disposals 25+ ($1.86), Harvey Langford Disposals 15+ ($1.55), Stephen Coniglio Disposals 15+ ($1.42), Ryan Byrnes Disposals 15+ ($1.57). Combined odds $23.62 at a 12 percent model win probability. The multi landed.
Geelong vs St Kilda
Geelong by 27. The model had the Cats, the market had the Cats.
Geelong secured a comfortable victory at home, performing as Footy Tip Jar expected. Their ability to generate scoring chances allowed them to pull away from St Kilda. The model had rated Geelong higher than the market.
Sydney vs Adelaide
Adelaide by 16. The model had the Swans, the market had the Swans.
Adelaide surprised many by taking the points against Sydney on the road. The Crows were particularly effective in the contest, an area the model had projected for them. This result was a notable upset for the round.
Port Adelaide vs Fremantle
Fremantle by 28. The model had Freo, the market had Freo.
Fremantle travelled to Adelaide Oval and earned a solid win against Port Adelaide. The Dockers controlled territory, a key factor in their projected victory. Footy Tip Jar had rated Port Adelaide higher than the market.
North Melbourne vs Melbourne
Melbourne by 16. The model had the Dees, the market had the Dees.
Melbourne overcame a persistent North Melbourne under the roof, claiming a win that was tighter than the market expected. The Demons' strength in the contest helped them secure the four points. The model had rated North Melbourne higher than the market.
Collingwood vs Carlton
Collingwood by 21. The model had the Pies, the market had the Pies.
Collingwood delivered a strong performance against Carlton at the MCG. The Pies converted their scoring opportunities well, which was a significant part of their projected win. The model had rated Carlton higher than the market.
West Coast vs Brisbane Lions
Brisbane Lions by 24. The model had the Lions, the market had the Lions.
The Brisbane Lions made the trip west and delivered a convincing win over West Coast. Their control of territory was instrumental in the victory. The model had rated West Coast higher than the market.
Richmond vs Hawthorn
Hawthorn by 70. The model had the Hawks, the market had the Hawks.
Hawthorn recorded the largest win of the round against Richmond, a result the model had strongly anticipated. Their efficiency in generating scoring chances was a highlight. Footy Tip Jar had rated Hawthorn higher than the market.
Gold Coast vs Western Bulldogs
Western Bulldogs by 9. The model had the Suns, the market had the Suns.
The Western Bulldogs pulled off an upset against Gold Coast, despite the Suns being favoured by both the model and the market. The Bulldogs' finishing ability proved pivotal. They were able to convert their chances when it mattered.
Essendon vs Greater Western Sydney
Essendon by 3. The model had Greater Western Sydney, the market had Greater Western Sydney.
Essendon snatched a narrow victory against Greater Western Sydney in a game that went against all predictions. Their superior finishing in front of goal was a key factor in the upset. The Giants were expected to win by a significant margin.
FAQ
Which team had the biggest win in Round 19?
Hawthorn recorded the largest victory of Round 19, defeating Richmond by 70 points.
Were there any upsets in Round 19?
Yes, Adelaide beat Sydney, the Western Bulldogs defeated Gold Coast, and Essendon overcame Greater Western Sydney, all against the model's predictions and market expectations.
How did Footy Tip Jar perform with its Round 19 predictions?
Footy Tip Jar successfully tipped 6 of the 9 games correctly in Round 19, maintaining a solid season accuracy.
