AFL Round 20 2026 Preview: Tight Derby, Big Wins Expected
Round 20 offers some clear favourites and a couple of truly tight contests. Footy Tip Jar sees Hawthorn and Fremantle winning comfortably, but the Sydney derby looks like it could genuinely go either way. There are also a few road wins predicted, with Geelong heading to the MCG to take on the Dees.
Multi of the week
Footy Tip Jar's Leg Lab multi of the week, locked at team announcement: Hunter Clark Disposals 15+ ($1.42), Jack Steele Disposals 20+ ($1.26), Ned Long Disposals 15+ ($1.55), Nic Newman Disposals 20+ ($1.26), Jordan Dawson Disposals 20+ ($1.21), Dion Prestia Disposals 20+ ($1.57), Patrick Lipinski Disposals 15+ ($1.20), Liam Duggan Disposals 15+ ($1.26). Combined odds $10.04 at a 26 percent model win probability.
Adelaide vs Collingwood
Footy Tip Jar has Adelaide by 17 at Adelaide Oval.
Adelaide wins the contest and creates more chances, which should translate to scoreboard pressure. Collingwood will need to be very efficient to stay in this game, especially away from home.
Melbourne vs Geelong
Footy Tip Jar has Geelong by 10 over Melbourne at the MCG.
Geelong looks to control territory and generate scoring opportunities, giving them a slight edge. The Dees' strength at the contest should keep them in it, but the Cats are expected to convert their looks. Oliver Dempsey is one to watch.
Fremantle vs West Coast
Footy Tip Jar has Fremantle by 44 in the Western Derby.
Fremantle's ability to create chances stands out here, and they should control the ball for long periods. West Coast's pressure might disrupt them at times, but it is unlikely to be enough to change the outcome.
Carlton vs Gold Coast
Footy Tip Jar has Carlton by 13 over Gold Coast at Marvel.
Carlton is expected to retain the ball well and create more scoring chances under the roof. Gold Coast's finishing ability will be important to keep them in the game, but the Blues have the edge.
Hawthorn vs Essendon
Footy Tip Jar has Hawthorn by 55 against Essendon at the MCG.
Hawthorn projects to control the game from the middle, giving them a significant advantage in creating scoring opportunities. Essendon's pressure might make it hard, but the Hawks are expected to win comfortably.
Greater Western Sydney vs Sydney
Footy Tip Jar has Greater Western Sydney by 1 in a tight Sydney Derby.
This derby is projected to be very close, with little separating the two sides. Greater Western Sydney's slight edge in winning the contest and generating chances might just be enough to get them over the line at home.
Western Bulldogs vs Richmond
Footy Tip Jar has Western Bulldogs by 34 against Richmond at Marvel.
The Bulldogs are projected to create many more scoring opportunities, which should decide this game. Richmond's strength at the contest will be tested by the Dogs' ability to convert those chances.
Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide
Footy Tip Jar has Brisbane Lions by 38 at the Gabba.
The Lions are expected to control the flow of the game, winning the ball and creating chances from there. Port Adelaide's pressure will be a factor, but the home side should prove too strong.
North Melbourne vs St Kilda
Footy Tip Jar has St Kilda by 9 over North Melbourne at Marvel.
St Kilda is projected to generate more scoring chances and win the ball at the contest. North Melbourne's ability to retain the ball will keep them in the game, but the Saints are tipped to prevail. Marcus Windhager looks set for a good day.
FAQ
Which game is projected to be the closest this round?
The Footy Tip Jar model predicts the Sydney derby between Greater Western Sydney and Sydney will be the tightest, with a projected margin of just one point.
Which team has the biggest projected win margin for Round 20?
Hawthorn is projected to have the largest winning margin this round, tipped to beat Essendon by 55 points at the MCG.
Who are some of the top fantasy players projected for Round 20?
According to the Footy Tip Jar model, Harry Sheezel from North Melbourne is projected for 122 fantasy points, while Bailey Smith from Geelong is projected for 115 points.
