AFL Round 20 2026 Review: Collingwood's Upset, Cats Prevail
Round 20 delivered some expected results, particularly for the top teams, but also presented a notable upset. While Footy Tip Jar successfully navigated most of the fixtures, Collingwood's strong performance against Adelaide was a reminder that even confident predictions can be challenged on the day. The Cats also quietly continued their impressive form.
Footy Tip Jar tipped 7 from 9 in Round 20 and sits at 128 from 171 (74.9 percent) for the season.
Multi of the week
Footy Tip Jar's Leg Lab multi of the week, locked at team announcement: Hunter Clark Disposals 15+ ($1.42), Jack Steele Disposals 20+ ($1.26), Ned Long Disposals 15+ ($1.55), Nic Newman Disposals 20+ ($1.26), Jordan Dawson Disposals 20+ ($1.21), Dion Prestia Disposals 20+ ($1.57), Patrick Lipinski Disposals 15+ ($1.20), Liam Duggan Disposals 15+ ($1.26). Combined odds $10.04 at a 26 percent model win probability. The multi missed.
Adelaide vs Collingwood
Collingwood by 34. The model had the Crows.
The Crows failed to win the ball as expected, and Collingwood capitalised effectively on their chances. The Magpies consistently moved the ball well into their forward half. Nick Daicos was awarded the three votes for a strong performance.
Melbourne vs Geelong
Geelong by 20. Footy Tip Jar had the Cats.
Geelong secured a comfortable win on the road, as the model suggested they might. Their ability to move the ball into attacking positions proved too much for the Dees. Bailey Smith took the three votes.
Fremantle vs West Coast
Fremantle by 70. The model had the Dockers.
Fremantle delivered a dominant showing in the Derby, controlling every facet of the game from the outset. The Eagles struggled to gain any meaningful possession. Jye Amiss received the three votes.
Carlton vs Gold Coast
Carlton by 13. The Blues got the job done.
Carlton's ability to win the ball around the contest and generate opportunities was key to their narrow victory. The model had them rated higher than the market, and they delivered. Patrick Cripps was awarded three votes.
Hawthorn vs Essendon
Hawthorn by 93. The Hawks delivered a big win.
Hawthorn proved far too strong for Essendon, putting on a powerful display at the MCG. They controlled the flow of the game from start to finish. Jarman Impey earned the three Brownlow votes.
Greater Western Sydney vs Sydney
Sydney by 51. The model had the Giants in a tight one.
Sydney defied the model's projection of a close game, dominating the Swans Derby by securing the ball in the forward half. The Giants struggled to convert their chances. Errol Gulden was awarded the three votes.
Western Bulldogs vs Richmond
Western Bulldogs by 57. The Dogs handled the Tigers comfortably.
The Western Bulldogs controlled the game through the midfield, generating many scoring opportunities against a struggling Richmond outfit. Their efficiency in moving the ball forward was a key factor. Ed Richards was awarded the three votes.
Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide
Brisbane Lions by 59. The Lions were too good at the Gabba.
Brisbane maintained strong control across all key performance indicators, resulting in a convincing victory at home. Port Adelaide found it difficult to get into the game. Will Ashcroft received the three votes.
North Melbourne vs St Kilda
St Kilda by 31. The Saints secured the win.
St Kilda performed strongly around the ball and consistently created scoring chances, outmatching North Melbourne. Their forward entries were particularly effective. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera took the three votes.
FAQ
Who was the standout player in Round 20?
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera had an exceptional round, topping both fantasy and Supercoach scores with an impressive actual fantasy score of 182 and Supercoach score of 194.
Which teams surprised the model this round?
Collingwood's win over Adelaide was the main upset, with the model favouring the Crows by a reasonable margin. Sydney's substantial victory over Greater Western Sydney also went against the model's expectation of a tight contest.
How did the Brownlow leaderboard change after Round 20?
Nick Daicos extended his lead with three votes, now on 40. Bailey Smith's three votes moved him to 31, while Patrick Cripps and Harry Sheezel are now tied on 24 votes.
