AFL Round 21 2026 Preview: Tight Contests and Clear Favourites
Round 21 presents a mix of clear favourites and genuine close contests according to Footy Tip Jar's model. While Adelaide, Hawthorn, and Fremantle are projected for comfortable wins, no fewer than three games are tipped by a single point, suggesting a weekend that could turn on individual moments. The market also appears to be underestimating Collingwood against Geelong, making that contest one to watch.
Multi of the week
Footy Tip Jar's Leg Lab multi of the week, locked at team announcement: Jarrod Berry Disposals 15+ ($1.26), Hugh Boxshall Disposals 15+ ($1.86), Marcus Windhager Disposals 20+ ($1.30), Lachie Neale Disposals 30+ ($1.86), Jordan Clark Disposals 20+ ($1.38), Jordan De Goey Disposals 20+ ($1.57), Zac Bailey Disposals 20+ ($1.38), Ryan Byrnes Disposals 15+ ($1.40). Combined odds $23.72 at a 13 percent model win probability.
Collingwood vs Geelong
Footy Tip Jar has Geelong by 1 in a close contest.
This is about as close as it gets, with Footy Tip Jar rating Collingwood a better chance than the market suggests. Geelong's slight edge in winning the contest should see them narrowly take the four points at the MCG.
Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs
Footy Tip Jar has Fremantle by 30 as they look to control the ball.
Fremantle are expected to win convincingly at home, with a clear advantage in generating scoring chances. The Bulldogs will likely struggle to match their overall ball movement at Optus Stadium.
St Kilda vs Sydney
Footy Tip Jar has Sydney by 1 in a tight Marvel Stadium encounter.
This shapes as a very close game under the roof, but Sydney's ability to create scoring chances gives them a narrow advantage. St Kilda will need to make the most of their possession to stay in touch.
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne
Footy Tip Jar has Hawthorn by 38 to win comfortably.
Hawthorn projects to be clearly superior to North Melbourne in Tasmania. Their greater strength in winning the ball and moving it forward should translate into a comfortable victory.
Port Adelaide vs Greater Western Sydney
Footy Tip Jar has Greater Western Sydney by 8 at Adelaide Oval.
Greater Western Sydney's efficiency in front of goal is expected to be the difference against Port Adelaide. While Port will compete, the Giants are projected to convert their opportunities more effectively.
Carlton vs Brisbane Lions
Footy Tip Jar has Brisbane Lions by 14 over Carlton.
The Brisbane Lions are tipped to win on the back of their superior ability to create scoring chances. Carlton will need to improve their defensive structure to limit the Lions' forward entries.
Richmond vs West Coast
Footy Tip Jar has West Coast by 1 in a close one at the G.
This is another game where there is not much in it, with West Coast just nudging out Richmond. The Eagles' slight edge in controlling territory should be enough for them to get over the line at the MCG.
Gold Coast vs Melbourne
Footy Tip Jar has Gold Coast by 3 in a close one on the Gold Coast.
Despite Melbourne's overall strength, Gold Coast is tipped to win at home, largely due to their improved finishing. It will be a tight contest, but the Suns should make their chances count.
Essendon vs Adelaide
Footy Tip Jar has Adelaide by 44 in a dominant display.
Adelaide is expected to secure a decisive victory over Essendon at Marvel Stadium. Their significant advantage in generating scoring chances will be difficult for the Bombers to contain.
FAQ
Which teams are predicted to win by big margins in Round 21?
Footy Tip Jar projects Adelaide, Hawthorn, and Fremantle to win their respective matches by significant margins this round.
What is the closest game predicted for Round 21?
The model suggests Collingwood versus Geelong, St Kilda versus Sydney, and Richmond versus West Coast will all be decided by a single point, making them the tightest contests of the round.
Does Footy Tip Jar see any value in backing an underdog this round?
The model rates Collingwood higher than the market against Geelong, suggesting potential value there, even though Geelong is still the narrow tip.
