AFL Round 21 2026 Review: Fremantle, Sydney, Adelaide Secure Wins
Round 21 presented a mix of expected outcomes and a notable upset, as teams jostle for position late in the season. Footy Tip Jar recorded seven correct tips for the round, with the model accurately predicting some closer contests. The biggest surprise came at Marvel Stadium, where one side delivered a performance that defied the pre-game projections.
Footy Tip Jar tipped 7 from 9 in Round 21 and sits at 135 from 180 (75.0 percent) for the season.
Multi of the week
Footy Tip Jar's Leg Lab multi of the week, locked at team announcement: Jarrod Berry Disposals 15+ ($1.26), Hugh Boxshall Disposals 15+ ($1.86), Marcus Windhager Disposals 20+ ($1.30), Lachie Neale Disposals 30+ ($1.86), Jordan Clark Disposals 20+ ($1.38), Jordan De Goey Disposals 20+ ($1.57), Zac Bailey Disposals 20+ ($1.38), Ryan Byrnes Disposals 15+ ($1.40). Combined odds $23.72 at a 13 percent model win probability. The multi missed.
Collingwood vs Geelong
Geelong by 25. The market had Collingwood, the model had Geelong.
Geelong secured a solid win, with Oliver Dempsey earning the three votes. The Cats' control of territory was key, allowing them to pull away from a Collingwood side the model rated more highly than the market.
Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs
Fremantle by 37. The market had Western Bulldogs, the model had Fremantle.
Fremantle delivered a strong performance, living up to Footy Tip Jar's expectation for a comfortable win. Despite Ed Richards receiving the three votes for his efforts, the Dockers created more chances and dictated the game's flow.
St Kilda vs Sydney
Sydney by 19. The market had St Kilda, the model had Sydney.
Sydney took the points, with Isaac Heeney a standout for the Swans. While the model saw St Kilda as better value than the market, Sydney's ability to generate scoring opportunities saw them through.
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne
Hawthorn by 16. The market and the model had Hawthorn.
Hawthorn secured the victory against North Melbourne, as the model anticipated. Jack Gunston was awarded the three Brownlow votes in a game where the Hawks effectively moved the ball forward and created chances.
Port Adelaide vs Greater Western Sydney
Greater Western Sydney by 12. The market had Port Adelaide, the model had Greater Western Sydney.
Greater Western Sydney claimed the win on the road, with Clayton Oliver earning the three votes. The model correctly identified the Giants' capacity to generate scoring opportunities, which ultimately decided the contest.
Carlton vs Brisbane Lions
Carlton by 76. The market and the model had Brisbane Lions.
Carlton produced a surprising result against the Lions, winning by a significant margin. Despite Lachie Neale's three votes, the Blues' ability to create chances was far beyond what was expected, leading to Footy Tip Jar's only missed prediction this round.
Richmond vs West Coast
Richmond by 11. The market had West Coast, the model had Richmond.
Richmond secured the points over West Coast, with Tim Taranto a clear choice for the three votes. The model saw value in the Tigers, and their efficiency in front of goal proved decisive in a tight contest.
Gold Coast vs Melbourne
Melbourne by 9. The market had Gold Coast, the model had Gold Coast.
Melbourne snatched a win from Gold Coast on the road, despite the model rating the Suns higher than the market. Noah Anderson earned the three votes, but Melbourne's ability to convert chances was enough to get them over the line.
Essendon vs Adelaide
Adelaide by 72. The market had Essendon, the model had Adelaide.
Adelaide recorded a comprehensive win against Essendon, with Riley Thilthorpe a deserved recipient of the three votes. Footy Tip Jar correctly identified the Crows' clear advantage in generating scoring opportunities.
FAQ
Who is leading the Brownlow Medal count after Round 21?
Nick Daicos of Collingwood continues to lead the Brownlow Medal race with 42 votes.
Which game was the biggest upset in Round 21?
Carlton's win over the Brisbane Lions was the round's most unexpected result, with the Blues winning by a large margin despite being the underdog.
How accurate was Footy Tip Jar's model in Round 21?
The Footy Tip Jar model correctly tipped seven out of nine games in Round 21, achieving an accuracy of 77.8 percent for the round.
