AFL Round 22 2026 Preview: Tips, Odds, and Projections
Round 22 presents a few clear-cut contests, but also some genuine tests for the model. Fremantle is tipped to take a road win against Melbourne at the MCG, a result that would have implications for the top eight. The tightest game of the round looks to be St Kilda versus Carlton, where the model finds very little to separate the two sides. Elsewhere, Geelong and Adelaide are projected for significant victories.
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne
Footy Tip Jar has Western Bulldogs by 11 at Marvel Stadium.
The Bulldogs appear to have an edge in generating scoring chances, which usually proves decisive at Marvel Stadium. North Melbourne will need to be more efficient with their opportunities if they are to challenge the Dogs at home.
Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn
Footy Tip Jar has Brisbane Lions by 7 at Gabba.
This is a close match, with Footy Tip Jar rating the Lions as a stronger chance than the market suggests. While Hawthorn might gain more territory, Brisbane's overall game at the Gabba should see them secure a narrow victory.
Melbourne vs Fremantle
Footy Tip Jar has Fremantle by 13 at MCG.
Fremantle looks to have a clear advantage in generating scoring chances, which is a significant factor on the wider expanses of the MCG. They should be able to control the tempo against the Dees and take the points.
Sydney vs Port Adelaide
Footy Tip Jar has Sydney by 36 at SCG.
Sydney is projected to create significantly more scoring chances, giving them a strong platform for victory. Their ability to convert those opportunities should see them run away with this one at the SCG.
Geelong vs Essendon
Footy Tip Jar has Geelong by 74 at GMHBA Stadium.
Geelong is expected to generate a substantial advantage in scoring chances, making this look like a comprehensive performance. The Cats should be too potent at home, with Essendon struggling to keep pace at GMHBA.
Adelaide vs Richmond
Footy Tip Jar has Adelaide by 52 at Adelaide Oval.
Adelaide holds a strong advantage in generating scoring chances, which should set up their attack. The Crows should be too potent for Richmond on their home deck at Adelaide Oval.
Greater Western Sydney vs Gold Coast
Footy Tip Jar has Greater Western Sydney by 13 at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka.
The Giants are projected to be more effective at generating scoring chances, which should be enough to get them over the line. Gold Coast will need to work hard to close that gap on the road.
West Coast vs Collingwood
Footy Tip Jar has Collingwood by 10 at Optus Stadium.
Footy Tip Jar has Collingwood slightly above the market here, largely due to their superior ability to generate scoring opportunities. It will be a close one, but the Pies should get the points at Optus Stadium.
St Kilda vs Carlton
Footy Tip Jar has Carlton by 6 at Marvel Stadium.
There is not much separating these two sides, with projections indicating a very close contest. Carlton's ability to make the most of their chances, perhaps through the likes of Sam Walsh, might just give them the edge.
FAQ
Which team is the biggest value pick for Round 22?
Footy Tip Jar's model rates Collingwood as a value pick against West Coast, seeing them as a stronger chance than the market suggests.
What's the tightest game predicted for Round 22?
The model suggests the St Kilda versus Carlton match will be the closest contest of the round, with very little separating the two teams.
Who are the top fantasy scorers for Round 22?
Harry Sheezel for North Melbourne is projected to be a strong fantasy performer this round, alongside Bailey Smith from Geelong.
