AFL Round 22 2026 Review: Swans and Cats Deliver as Dockers Fall Short
Round 22 presented some interesting challenges for tipsters, with a few results going against what the numbers might have suggested. While some favourites, like Sydney and Geelong, delivered convincing wins, other contests proved less predictable. The model had a tougher time this round, navigating some close contests that eventually swung the other way.
Footy Tip Jar tipped 5 from 9 in Round 22 and sits at 140 from 189 (74.1 percent) for the season.
Multi of the week
Footy Tip Jar's Leg Lab multi of the week, locked at team announcement: Sam Walsh Disposals 25+ ($1.33), George Hewett Disposals 25+ ($1.75), Max Hall Goals 1+ ($1.75), Ed Langdon Disposals 20+ ($1.75), Hugh Boxshall Disposals 15+ ($1.83), Marcus Windhager Disposals 20+ ($1.40), Max Gawn Disposals 20+ ($1.46), Jacob Farrow Disposals 15+ ($1.29). Combined odds $34.39 at a 13 percent model win probability. The multi missed.
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne
North Melbourne by 23. The model had the Bulldogs.
The Kangaroos pulled off a surprise win against the Bulldogs, who struggled to convert their forward chances. North Melbourne ultimately took control of the contest, leading to a comfortable victory. Luke Davies-Uniacke earned the three Brownlow votes.
Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn
Brisbane Lions by 67. The market had the Lions, the model had the Hawks.
The Lions put on a powerful display at the Gabba, significantly outscoring Hawthorn. The model's projection of a close contest for Hawthorn did not materialise, as Brisbane dominated in generating scoring chances. Will Ashcroft was awarded the three votes.
Melbourne vs Fremantle
Melbourne by 4. The model had Fremantle.
This was a tight affair at the MCG, with Melbourne holding on for a narrow win. The Dees found ways to create scoring opportunities, which was enough to overcome Fremantle's expected advantage. Kysaiah Pickett received the three Brownlow votes.
Sydney vs Port Adelaide
Sydney by 97. The model had the Swans.
Sydney delivered a comprehensive performance, comfortably winning against Port Adelaide. The Swans controlled territory and generated numerous scoring chances throughout the game. Errol Gulden was a clear choice for the three Brownlow votes.
Geelong vs Essendon
Geelong by 67. The model had Geelong.
Geelong put on a strong showing at GMHBA Stadium, securing a large win over Essendon. The Cats were particularly effective at converting their opportunities into scores. Bailey Smith was recognised with the three votes.
Adelaide vs Richmond
Adelaide by 9. The model had Adelaide.
Adelaide managed to hold off a persistent Richmond side in a lower-scoring game. While the Crows did not generate as many chances as expected, their finishing was effective when it mattered. Izak Rankine received the three Brownlow votes.
Greater Western Sydney vs Gold Coast
Gold Coast by 2. The market had the Giants, the model had the Suns.
Gold Coast secured a very close victory over Greater Western Sydney in Canberra. The Suns were more efficient with their forward entries, which proved decisive in a game where the Giants had more territory. Matt Rowell earned the three votes.
West Coast vs Collingwood
Collingwood by 19. The model had Collingwood.
Collingwood secured a solid away win against West Coast, outworking them in the contest. The Magpies were able to maintain better control of the ball and create more scoring chances. Nick Daicos was a standout, receiving the three Brownlow votes.
St Kilda vs Carlton
Carlton by 44. The model had Carlton.
Carlton had a convincing win over St Kilda, showing a clear advantage in generating scoring opportunities. The Blues' efficiency in front of goal was a key factor in the margin. Patrick Cripps was awarded the three votes.
FAQ
Which teams performed best in Round 22?
Sydney and Geelong both had particularly strong performances, securing large wins against their opponents. Carlton also delivered a convincing win against St Kilda.
Were there any upsets in Round 22?
Yes, North Melbourne's win over the Western Bulldogs was a notable upset, as was Gold Coast's narrow victory against Greater Western Sydney.
How did the Footy Tip Jar model fare this round?
The model correctly picked 5 of the 9 games this round. It was a more challenging week for predictions, with a few close contests not going as expected.
