AFL Round 23 2026 Preview: Footy Tip Jar's Game-by-Game Look
Round 23 brings a mix of games with clear favourites and a few contests that could prove tighter. The model is projecting some significant margins this week, particularly for teams at the top end of the ladder, suggesting a round where the stronger sides are expected to assert themselves. However, there are still a few games where the opposition might feel they have a chance to upset the predictions.
Fremantle vs Adelaide
Footy Tip Jar has Fremantle by 21 at Optus, controlling the contest.
Fremantle looks well-placed at home, with the model indicating they should win the contest across the ground. Adelaide will need to be more efficient inside their forward fifty to stay in touch, but Footy Tip Jar sees the Dockers creating enough opportunities to take the win.
Richmond vs St Kilda
Footy Tip Jar has St Kilda by 26 at the MCG, with a strong forward presence.
St Kilda enters this game with a clear advantage, particularly in generating scoring chances. Richmond will find it difficult to stop the Saints' forward movement, which should allow St Kilda to convert their opportunities and secure a comfortable margin.
North Melbourne vs Geelong
Footy Tip Jar has Geelong by 20 at Marvel, with better ball movement.
Geelong is expected to manage the ball more cleanly through the middle of the ground, which should lead to more attacking forays. While North Melbourne will apply pressure, the Cats' ability to advance the ball into their forward half consistently should be enough.
Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast
Footy Tip Jar has Brisbane Lions by 28 at the Gabba, generating more chances.
The Lions are predicted to create significantly more scoring opportunities in this Queensland derby. Gold Coast will work hard, but Brisbane's efficiency in moving the ball into their forward half should see them pull away.
Hawthorn vs Collingwood
Footy Tip Jar has Hawthorn by 20 at the MCG, winning the ball around the ground.
Hawthorn is tipped to gain the upper hand by winning the ball more often at the contest. Collingwood will look to move it quickly, but the Hawks' ability to control the stoppages should allow them to maintain possession and create scoring avenues.
Port Adelaide vs Melbourne
Footy Tip Jar has Melbourne by 22 at Adelaide Oval, holding territory.
Melbourne is expected to control territory more effectively, pushing the ball into their forward half more often. Port Adelaide will apply pressure, but the Dees' ability to retain possession and create scoring plays from their defensive half should be telling.
Greater Western Sydney vs West Coast
Footy Tip Jar has Greater Western Sydney by 44 at ENGIE Stadium, with a comprehensive advantage.
Greater Western Sydney is projected to have a clear advantage across all key areas of the game. West Coast will find it challenging to match the Giants' output, especially in moving the ball and converting chances, which should lead to a wide margin.
Western Bulldogs vs Carlton
Footy Tip Jar has Carlton by 22 at Marvel, controlling the midfield battle.
Carlton is tipped to dominate the midfield, winning the ball at the contest and moving it effectively into their forward line. The Bulldogs will fight hard, but the Blues' control around the stoppages should give them the edge.
Essendon vs Sydney
Footy Tip Jar has Sydney by 45 at the MCG, with a strong forward half.
Sydney is expected to be too strong for Essendon, particularly with their ability to generate scores from their forward half. The Swans' movement and efficiency in creating chances should see them win comfortably.
FAQ
Which game has the biggest predicted margin in Round 23?
The model suggests Sydney will have the largest winning margin in Round 23, with a projected victory of 45 points over Essendon.
Which Round 23 game is projected to be the closest?
Hawthorn versus Collingwood, and North Melbourne versus Geelong, are both projected with a margin of 20 points, making them the closest predicted games.
Who is the top fantasy captain for Round 23?
Harry Sheezel of North Melbourne is projected as a top fantasy captain for Round 23, with a forecast of 124 points in fantasy scoring.
