AFL Round 23 2026 Review: Strong Sides Convert Their Chances
As the home and away season draws to a close, Round 23 saw a clear distinction between the top contenders and those further down the ladder. Many of the bigger games played out largely as expected, with the stronger sides converting their advantages, though a few contests required a more nuanced assessment.
Footy Tip Jar has now tipped 140 correct winners from 189 games this season, at 74.1 percent accuracy.
Fremantle vs Adelaide
Fremantle by 31. Footy Tip Jar had the Dockers.
Fremantle was expected to control the middle of the ground, and that proved to be the case. Their ability to generate scoring chances helped them secure a clear victory. Caleb Serong earned three votes.
Richmond vs St Kilda
St Kilda by 29. The Saints were the model's pick.
St Kilda had a strong forecast for their ball use and chance creation, which they converted into a comfortable win. Bradley Hill was awarded three Brownlow votes.
North Melbourne vs Geelong
Geelong by 23. Footy Tip Jar tipped the Cats.
Geelong was expected to create more scoring chances, which they did to secure the points. Nick Larkey was a standout for North Melbourne, taking home three votes despite the loss.
Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast
Brisbane Lions by 33. The Lions were the model's call.
The Lions were tipped to win the ball at the contest and transition it well, leading to a strong performance. Will Ashcroft was recognised with three votes for his efforts.
Hawthorn vs Collingwood
Hawthorn by 17. The Hawks were the model's choice.
Hawthorn was expected to control the ball through the middle and set up their forwards, which they managed to do. Jai Newcombe was awarded three votes for a strong game.
Port Adelaide vs Melbourne
Melbourne by 17. Footy Tip Jar had the Dees.
Melbourne was predicted to convert their scoring opportunities more efficiently than Port Adelaide, which proved decisive. Joe Berry was a clear best afield for Port Adelaide, receiving three votes.
Greater Western Sydney vs West Coast
Greater Western Sydney by 48. The Giants were tipped to win.
Greater Western Sydney was expected to generate a high volume of scoring chances, and they delivered a comfortable win. Clayton Oliver's performance earned him three votes.
Western Bulldogs vs Carlton
Carlton by 12. The model had the Blues.
Carlton was tipped to win a tight game, despite the Bulldogs' projected strengths in generating opportunities. Marcus Bontempelli was recognised with three Brownlow votes for his individual contribution.
Essendon vs Sydney
Sydney by 44. Footy Tip Jar had the Swans.
Sydney was expected to control the overall flow of the game and create many scoring avenues, which led to a substantial win. James Jordon collected three Brownlow votes.
FAQ
Which player received the most Brownlow votes in Round 23?
Several players received the maximum three votes in their respective games: Caleb Serong, Bradley Hill, Nick Larkey, Will Ashcroft, Jai Newcombe, Joe Berry, Clayton Oliver, Marcus Bontempelli, and James Jordon.
Were there any notable outcomes against expectation this round?
The Western Bulldogs and Carlton game saw Carlton win as tipped, despite the Bulldogs' projected strengths in several key performance areas. This suggests Carlton found a way to convert when it mattered.
How did Footy Tip Jar's model perform on the higher-rated games?
The model was confident in its predictions for the stronger teams, correctly identifying the winners in games like Fremantle versus Adelaide, Brisbane versus Gold Coast, Greater Western Sydney versus West Coast, and Essendon versus Sydney.
