AFL Round 24 2026 Review: Upsets and Confirmed Favourites
Round 24 offered a few reminders that projections are not guarantees. While some heavy favourites delivered as expected, a notable number of upsets made for a less predictable weekend of football. The model had a tougher time picking winners this round, with several tight games swinging against its lean.
Footy Tip Jar tipped 5 from 9 in Round 24 and sits at 154 from 207 (74.4 percent) for the season.
Multi of the week
Footy Tip Jar's Leg Lab multi of the week, locked at team announcement: Luke Jackson Disposals 15+ ($1.26), Adam Cerra Disposals 20+ ($1.36), Lachlan Cowan Disposals 15+ ($1.53), Sam Walsh Disposals 25+ ($1.22), Liam Baker Disposals 15+ ($1.38), Bailey Dale Disposals 25+ ($1.42), Andrew McGrath Disposals 20+ ($1.75), Liam Duggan Disposals 15+ ($1.36). Combined odds $14.92 at a 16 percent model win probability. The multi missed.
St Kilda vs Gold Coast
Gold Coast by 23. The model had St Kilda, and was incorrect.
St Kilda were expected to win the contest, but Gold Coast controlled that area of the game. Touk Miller collected the three Brownlow votes, leading his team to a comfortable victory on the road. The model had rated Gold Coast higher than the market, but not enough to tip them.
Collingwood vs Brisbane Lions
Brisbane Lions by 63. The model had the Lions, and was correct.
Brisbane controlled the flow of the game from the outset, moving the ball with purpose and limiting Collingwood's chances. Lachie Neale was awarded the three votes for a strong performance in the midfield. The model identified this as a game where the market undervalued the Magpies, but still had the Lions as the likely winner.
Carlton vs Fremantle
Carlton by 37. The model had Fremantle, and was incorrect.
The model expected Fremantle to win this one, but Carlton's ability to generate scoring chances proved too much. Sam Walsh was the clear standout, earning the three Brownlow votes. The Blues were particularly efficient with their forward entries.
Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs
Western Bulldogs by 21. The model had Melbourne, and was incorrect.
Melbourne were tipped as clear favourites, but the Bulldogs found a way to win on the scoreboard. Marcus Bontempelli earned the three votes, helping his side convert opportunities when it mattered. It was a surprising result, considering the Dees' projected control of territory.
Geelong vs Richmond
Geelong by 57. The model had Geelong, and was correct.
Geelong secured a comprehensive victory, with their ability to retain possession proving key. Bailey Smith was awarded the three Brownlow votes for his influence. This was a straightforward win for the Cats, aligning with the model's strong projection.
Adelaide vs Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide by 56. The model had Adelaide, and was correct.
Adelaide asserted itself from the start, particularly in winning the ball at the contest. Izak Rankine was outstanding, taking home the three votes. The Crows were able to translate their midfield advantage into a significant score.
Essendon vs Port Adelaide
Port Adelaide by 10. The model had Essendon, and was incorrect.
This was projected as a close game, with the model leaning to Essendon. Port Adelaide managed to finish their scoring opportunities more effectively, securing the win. Jase Burgoyne was awarded the three Brownlow votes for his efforts.
Sydney vs North Melbourne
Sydney by 53. The model had Sydney, and was correct.
Sydney controlled the game, particularly in generating scoring chances. Errol Gulden was awarded the three Brownlow votes for his strong performance. The Swans maintained their composure throughout, preventing North Melbourne from gaining any real momentum.
West Coast vs Hawthorn
Hawthorn by 62. The model had Hawthorn, and was correct.
Hawthorn were expected to win comfortably, and they did so by limiting West Coast's forward entries. Will Day was awarded the three votes for a strong game. The Hawks kept the Eagles under pressure for much of the contest.
FAQ
How did the model perform in Round 24?
The model had a tougher round than usual, correctly tipping 5 of the 9 games. This brings the overall season accuracy to 74.4 percent.
Were there any notable upsets in Round 24?
Yes, there were a few significant upsets. Gold Coast overcame St Kilda, Carlton defeated Fremantle, and the Western Bulldogs surprised Melbourne, all against the model's predictions.
Who were the top Brownlow vote-getters for Round 24?
Touk Miller, Lachie Neale, Sam Walsh, Marcus Bontempelli, Bailey Smith, Izak Rankine, Jase Burgoyne, Errol Gulden, and Will Day each received the maximum three votes in their respective matches.
