AFL Round 26 2026 Preview: Model Sees Value in Underdogs
Round 26 presents a few interesting cases where the market and the model diverge. Footy Tip Jar sees some value in underdogs this week, particularly in the Sydney versus Brisbane Lions game, which projects to be the most decisive of the round. The other matches appear closer on paper.
Fremantle vs Hawthorn
Footy Tip Jar has Fremantle by 5 at Optus, with the Hawks better rated than the market.
The model sees Hawthorn as a better chance than the market suggests, making this a tight contest at Optus. Fremantle are still tipped to prevail, primarily through their ability to generate scoring chances. Massimo D'Ambrosio is a player to watch for the Hawks.
Geelong vs Carlton
Footy Tip Jar has Geelong by 7 in a tight contest at the G.
This match at the MCG looks like it could turn on the day, with little separating the two sides. Geelong's slight edge in ball retention and their ability to finish their work should see them home. Tom Atkins could be prominent for the Cats.
Sydney vs Brisbane Lions
Footy Tip Jar has Brisbane Lions by 16, despite the market underestimating Sydney.
The model suggests Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here, projecting the largest margin of the round. However, it also believes Sydney has been undervalued by the market, hinting at a more competitive outing than some might expect. The Lions' capacity to create scoring opportunities should be enough.
Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs
Footy Tip Jar has Adelaide by 8, though the Bulldogs are better than their market price.
Adelaide Oval is a tough venue for visitors, and the Crows are tipped to win, but the model rates the Western Bulldogs more highly than the market. Adelaide's efficiency in front of goal should be enough to secure the points. Josh Worrell is projected to have a good day.
FAQ
Which game is Footy Tip Jar predicting to be the tightest this round?
The model suggests Fremantle versus Hawthorn will be the closest contest, with only a small margin separating the teams. Geelong against Carlton also looks like it could go either way.
Does Footy Tip Jar see any value in underdogs for Round 26?
The model rates Hawthorn, Sydney, and the Western Bulldogs more highly than the market does, suggesting these teams might offer more resistance than their odds imply.
Which team is expected to win most comfortably in Round 26?
Brisbane Lions are projected to have the most decisive win of the round when they play Sydney at the SCG.
