Stats-modelled tips to beat the average pub punter
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Stats-modelled AFL predictions for the 2026 season: match tips and margins, Brownlow Medal vote projections, SuperCoach and AFL Fantasy scores, the predicted ladder, and player stat projections. Enable JavaScript to use the full interactive app.
Updated 2026-10-19.
Tips correct: 159 / 218 (73%).
Season accuracy holds the model honest. Every prediction made each round is graded against the actual result: tips correct or incorrect, projected margin vs actual margin (mean absolute error), and value-pick hit rate. Tips are immutable, once a tip is published it can never be retroactively changed, even if the model later recalibrates. Per-confidence-level calibration is the key health signal: high-confidence tips (greater than 68% win probability) should win ~70% of the time. Calibration drift across the season is what catches an over-confident or stale model early.
