How does Footy Tip Jar AFL prediction model work?

Footy Tip Jar rates every AFL team on the factors that actually decide games and updates those ratings after each round, using only what was known before a game was played. It weighs the two teams against each other to produce a predicted margin and a calibrated win probability, and has been backtested across hundreds of past matches.

How accurate are Footy Tip Jar AFL tips?

Footy Tip Jar tipped at 72.7% in 2025 (157 of 216 correct), ahead of most newspaper experts and pub comps. Tips are generated before the first game of each round and locked in with no revisions after the fact.

How does Footy Tip Jar predict Brownlow Medal votes?

For each game the model estimates every player’s chance of polling 3, 2 or 1 votes from how they performed and the shape of the match, then simulates the full season many times over to build a live leaderboard with projected totals and medal chances. Played rounds use actual stats; future rounds use projections.

Does Footy Tip Jar predict SuperCoach and AFL Fantasy scores?

Yes. Every AFL player gets projected SuperCoach and AFL Fantasy scores for each round, derived from individual stat projections. They are best treated as a guide rather than a guarantee.

Is Footy Tip Jar free to use?

Yes, Footy Tip Jar is completely free. All AFL tipping predictions, player projections, SuperCoach and Fantasy scores, Brownlow Medal predictions, and ladder projections are available at no cost.

Stats-modelled AFL tips

Footy Tip Jar

The short version

Footy Tip Jar tips every AFL game, projects every player's stats, simulates the Brownlow, and predicts the whole finals series down to a premier. It's a stats model doing the thinking, not a punter with a hunch.

In 2025 it tipped at 72.7% (157 of 216), ahead of most newspaper experts and pub comps. Fantasy and SuperCoach numbers, player stat markets and value bets come along for the ride.

Every call is locked in before the first bounce of the round and never touched again. No hindsight, no quiet edits. The how is below.

View Tips 2025 Proof

Footy Tip Jar

The short version

How the tips are made

Player projections

Brownlow predictions

Finals projections

Keeping it honest