AFL Round 14 2026 Review: The Tip Jar's Perfect Round
Round 14 saw The Tip Jar's predictions come to fruition across the board, with all seven games correctly tipped. Several matchups that appeared closer on paper, or where the market disagreed with our projections, ultimately resolved in line with the model's view, reinforcing its quiet confidence.
The Tip Jar tipped 7 from 7 in Round 14 and sits at 93 from 123 (75.6 percent) for the season.
Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide
Adelaide by 57. The Tip Jar had the Crows, and so did the model, against the market.
Adelaide put in a comprehensive performance, especially in winning the contest, which the model had not fully anticipated. Jordan Dawson was instrumental for the Crows. The Tip Jar's view that Adelaide was a better prospect than the market suggested proved accurate.
Geelong vs Gold Coast
Geelong by 45. The market underrated the Cats, but The Tip Jar had them winning.
Geelong played to its projected strength, controlling the game from the outset. Their ability to generate chances was a clear factor in the comfortable win, with Max Holmes earning the three votes.
Melbourne vs Essendon
Melbourne by 45. The Dees won as The Tip Jar expected.
Melbourne demonstrated their control of territory throughout the game, preventing Essendon from gaining any real foothold. Kysaiah Pickett was a standout for the Dees in their expected win.
West Coast vs North Melbourne
North Melbourne by 1. The Tip Jar tipped the Kangaroos, against the market.
This was a close game, but North Melbourne managed to hold on, largely through their work in the contest. Harry Sheezel's performance was key in securing the narrow victory, as the model had predicted.
Port Adelaide vs Sydney
Sydney by 3. The Tip Jar correctly backed the Swans in a tight finish.
Sydney secured a narrow victory, despite Port Adelaide having more of the ball and creating more opportunities. The Swans' ability to convert their chances when it mattered proved the difference, with Isaac Heeney leading the way.
Richmond vs Brisbane Lions
Brisbane Lions by 35. The Tip Jar had the Lions winning comfortably.
The Brisbane Lions controlled the flow of the game, particularly in generating scoring opportunities, which led to a solid win. Will Ashcroft was a strong performer for the Lions in their expected victory.
St Kilda vs Greater Western Sydney
St Kilda by 8. The Saints won as The Tip Jar predicted, against the market.
St Kilda secured a hard-fought win, driven by their effective pressure and ability to convert their chances. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera was a key contributor for the Saints, whose performance surpassed market expectations.
FAQ
Who received the three Brownlow votes for Adelaide in Round 14?
Jordan Dawson was awarded the three votes for his performance against the Western Bulldogs.
What was the biggest margin for a tipped winner in Round 14?
Adelaide's win over the Western Bulldogs by 57 points was the largest winning margin for a correctly tipped team this round.
Which game had the closest finish in Round 14?
North Melbourne's one-point victory over West Coast was the closest game of the round.
