AFL Round 15 2026: Tip Jar Previews the Weekend's Action
Round 15 presents a few fixtures where The Tip Jar model sees a clear path to victory for the tipped side. Collingwood and North Melbourne, in particular, are projected to win comfortably. However, there are also a couple of contests that appear much tighter, where a single factor like a team's finishing ability or control of the contest will need to carry the day.
Fremantle vs Geelong
The Tip Jar has Fremantle by 14 at Optus Stadium.
Fremantle are backed to control the contest, which should give them the foundation at Optus. While Geelong are projected to be more efficient with the ball, the Dockers' ability to generate scoring chances should prove decisive. Hayden Young is one to watch.
Gold Coast vs Hawthorn
The Tip Jar has Hawthorn by 16 at People First Stadium.
Hawthorn project to win the contest and territory comfortably, giving them a strong platform away from home. Gold Coast will need to make the most of their forward entries, but the sheer volume of opportunities for the Hawks should see them through.
Adelaide vs Melbourne
The Tip Jar has Adelaide by 15 at Adelaide Oval.
Adelaide's strong finishing ability is expected to be a key factor at Adelaide Oval. Melbourne might win more of the ball and gain territory, but the Crows are projected to convert their opportunities at a far greater rate.
Greater Western Sydney vs Carlton
The Tip Jar has Greater Western Sydney by 12 at ENGIE Stadium.
This looks to be a tight contest, with Carlton projected to move the ball with more retention and generate more chances. However, Greater Western Sydney's superior finishing at home is the difference for The Tip Jar, allowing them to make the most of fewer opportunities.
Collingwood vs Port Adelaide
The Tip Jar has Collingwood by 20 at the MCG.
Collingwood is projected to be very clean with the ball, particularly in retention, which should allow them to control play at the MCG. While Port Adelaide will challenge them at the contest, the Magpies' ability to create and convert scoring chances points to a comfortable victory.
Richmond vs North Melbourne
The Tip Jar has North Melbourne by 17 at the MCG.
North Melbourne appears to have a clear edge across most aspects of the game, from winning the ball to generating scoring chances. Richmond's projected high pressure will make them work for it, but the Kangaroos' overall strength should see them win at the G.
St Kilda vs Western Bulldogs
The Tip Jar has St Kilda by 13 at Marvel Stadium.
St Kilda is tipped to control the contest and retain the ball well, giving them a solid foundation at Marvel. The Western Bulldogs' ability to finish their forward entries will keep them in the game, but the Saints' projected edge in generating chances should be enough.
FAQ
Which game is the tightest according to The Tip Jar?
The model sees Greater Western Sydney versus Carlton as the closest game of the round, with the Giants holding a win probability of sixty-five percent.
Which team is the biggest favourite in Round 15?
Collingwood against Port Adelaide is the game with the highest projected win probability, with the Magpies at seventy-four percent to take the four points.
Are there any surprising tips this round?
The Tip Jar has North Melbourne winning by seventeen points over Richmond at the MCG, a relatively strong margin that some might not expect.
