How accurate are The Tip Jar's AFL tipping predictions?

The Tip Jar's AFL prediction model was backtested across the full 2025 AFL season, achieving strong calibration in win probability, projected margins, and player stat projections. The model uses a 6-domain team comparison framework (contest, territory, retention, chance creation, finishing, pressure) trained on 855+ AFL matches with regression-fitted domain weights. It produces well-calibrated win probabilities — when the model says 70%, teams win approximately 70% of the time.

Does The Tip Jar predict SuperCoach and AFL Fantasy scores?

Yes. Every AFL player receives projected SuperCoach and Fantasy scores for each round, derived from 25+ individual stat projections and calibrated scoring weights. The SuperCoach model uses theory-constrained regression anchored to known scoring rules (tackles = 4 points, goals = 8, etc.) and applies the official 3300-point-per-game scaling rule. Fantasy scores use the official AFL Fantasy scoring system. Both include projected season averages, captain pick rankings, and round-by-round breakdowns.

Are the AFL tips and predictions free?

Yes, The Tip Jar is completely free. All AFL tipping predictions, player stat projections, SuperCoach and Fantasy scores, Brownlow Medal predictions, Coleman Medal tracking, AFL ladder predictions, premiership odds, value bet detection, player prop probabilities, and same game multi insights are available at no cost. No signup required.

How does the AFL Brownlow Medal prediction work?

The Tip Jar predicts Brownlow Medal votes using a trained XGBoost model that estimates each player's probability of polling 3, 2, or 1 votes per game based on projected stats and match context. These per-game probabilities are normalised within each match (only one player can get 3 votes), then combined via 2000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation across the full 23-round season to produce a Brownlow Medal leaderboard with projected total votes, win probability, and podium chances.

Who are the AFL premiership favourites for 2026?

The Tip Jar's predicted AFL ladder for 2026 ranks every team by projected wins, percentage, and finals probability. The ladder predictions are derived from simulating all 207 home-and-away matches using the prediction model, giving each team a projected win-loss record, top 8 probability, top 4 probability, and premiership flag chances. View the full premiership predictions and premiership odds on the Ladder page.

Where can I find AFL odds, value bets, and same game multi tips?

Each AFL match prediction on The Tip Jar includes model-derived win probabilities converted to fair decimal odds, plus a value bet indicator that flags where the model significantly disagrees with the betting market. Player prop probabilities show the likelihood of hitting disposal, goal, and other stat lines — useful for building same game multis (SGMs). The model also shows projected margins and head-to-head fair odds for every match.

Can I see AFL player stats and projections for 2026?

Yes. The Tip Jar projects individual stats for every AFL player in every match — disposals, kicks, handballs, marks, goals, behinds, tackles, hitouts, inside 50s, clearances, contested possessions, uncontested possessions, intercepts, rebound 50s, pressure acts, score involvements, clangers, frees for, frees against, one percenters, and more. The Stats Leaders page shows projected season totals and averages, filterable by position (DEF, MID, RUC, FWD) and team. Individual player profiles include round-by-round projections, historical form, and SuperCoach/Fantasy scores.

Who will win the Coleman Medal in 2026?

The Tip Jar's Stats Leaders page tracks projected season goal totals for every AFL forward, effectively predicting the Coleman Medal race and the AFL's leading goalkicker. Goals are projected per-match based on each player's historical scoring rate, opponent defensive strength, and contextual factors like home/away advantage and travel. View the full projected goal kicking leaderboard to see who's on track for the Coleman Medal.

How does The Tip Jar handle AFL injuries and team selections?

The Tip Jar maintains an AFL injury list that feeds directly into the prediction pipeline. When a player is ruled out, the model automatically selects the best available replacement from the team's full squad list by role and quality, then redistributes stat shares using a zero-sum approach so team totals are preserved but lineup strength changes realistically. This means injury impacts flow through to win probabilities, projected margins, player projections, and all downstream predictions including SuperCoach, Fantasy, and Brownlow.

What AFL tips does The Tip Jar provide each round?

Every AFL round, The Tip Jar provides: match-by-match tipping predictions with win probabilities and projected margins; full player stat projections for every player in every game (25+ stats per player); SuperCoach and Fantasy projected scores with captain pick rankings; Brownlow Medal vote predictions showing who's likely to poll; value bet detection comparing fair odds to market odds; player prop probabilities for disposal and goal lines; and an updated predicted AFL ladder. All tips are generated by the AI prediction model and updated when the injury list changes.

Does The Tip Jar show AFL ladder predictions and finals chances?

Yes. The Ladder page shows the full predicted AFL ladder for 2026 including projected wins, losses, draws, percentage, premiership points, finals probability, top 4 probability, and flag chances for all 18 teams. The predictions are derived from the model's match-by-match win probabilities across all 207 home-and-away games. It also includes wooden spoon odds and likely bottom 4 teams.

How are SuperCoach captain picks determined?

SuperCoach captain picks are determined by ranking all players by their projected SuperCoach score for each round. The model projects 25+ individual stats per player per match, applies the theory-constrained SuperCoach scoring weights (calibrated against actual SuperCoach scores with R²=0.90), then applies the 3300-point-per-game scaling. The top projected scorers each round are highlighted as captain-worthy options. The same approach is used for AFL Fantasy captain picks.

What is the best free AFL tipping prediction model?

The Tip Jar offers a free, data-driven AFL tipping prediction model that covers every match of the 2026 AFL season. Unlike simple Elo or power rating systems, it uses a 6-domain team comparison framework that separately models contest, territory, retention, chance creation, finishing, and pressure — with domain weights fitted via regression on historical AFL data. It also provides individual player projections, SuperCoach and Fantasy scores, Brownlow predictions, and ladder simulations, making it one of the most comprehensive free AFL tipping tools available.

Can I use The Tip Jar for AFL same game multis and player props?

Yes. Each player's match page shows prop probability estimates — for example, the probability of a player getting 20+ disposals, 25+ disposals, 2+ goals, etc. These are derived from the player's projected stat line and historical variance. While The Tip Jar doesn't build SGM slips directly, the player prop probabilities and projected stats are designed to help you assess AFL same game multi legs, anytime goalscorer bets, and disposal market overs/unders.

What is the difference between SuperCoach and AFL Fantasy scoring?

AFL Fantasy uses simple per-stat weights: 3 points per kick, 2 per handball, 3 per mark, 4 per tackle, 6 per goal, 1 per behind, 1 per hitout. SuperCoach is more complex — it uses statistician-curated weights that reward contested possessions, score involvements, and other 'high-quality' actions more heavily, with the league applying an official rule that every match totals exactly 3300 points split between both teams. The Tip Jar projects both scoring systems for every player every round, so you can use the same projections for both competitions.

Does The Tip Jar predict AFL pre-season and Opening Round?

Yes. The Pre-Season page shows season-long predictions before round one — projected final ladder position, win-loss record, premiership odds, top 4 chances, top 8 chances, and wooden spoon odds for every team. Opening Round predictions are generated from prior-season form and 2026 squad changes. These predictions update once real 2026 results arrive.

How often are The Tip Jar predictions updated?

Predictions update automatically when the data changes. After each AFL match concludes, the pipeline refreshes scores, actuals, and Brownlow vote predictions within ~5 minutes. When the AFL injury list changes, the lightweight repipe rebuilds projections within ~14 minutes. When team lineups are announced (Wednesday or Thursday evening), predictions refresh again to reflect actual selections. Live scores during games update every 2 minutes.

How does The Tip Jar identify AFL value bets?

The model converts each match prediction to fair decimal odds (probability inverted, ~5% overround). Those fair odds are compared against frozen bookmaker odds captured at T-15 minutes before kickoff. When the model's fair odds are significantly shorter than the market — i.e. the bookies are overpaying for one side — the match is flagged as a value pick. Historical hit rates for value picks across the season are tracked on the Season Accuracy page, so you can see whether the value detection is genuinely outperforming the market.

Can I find AFL Fantasy and SuperCoach trade targets on The Tip Jar?

Yes. The Fantasy page includes a Calculator tab that surfaces trade targets by combining projected scores with current price and breakeven. Players with low breakevens but high projected output are flagged as price-rising trade-ins; players with high breakevens and falling projected output are flagged as trade-outs. The calculator also supports squad simulation so you can model a full team build with budget constraints.

How accurate are The Tip Jar's projected margins?

Projected margins are tracked separately from win-tip accuracy. Across the backtest window, mean absolute margin error is approximately 27 points — comparable to bookmaker line accuracy. The Season Accuracy page shows the running margin MAE and bias each round, so calibration can be inspected as the season progresses. Note that an AFL match's true margin variance is high (standard deviation ~40 points), so 27-point MAE is a strong result.

What AFL data sources does The Tip Jar use?

The Tip Jar's prediction model is trained on official AFL player match stats from 2022-2025 sourced via the fitzRoy R package (which mirrors AFL Tables and the AFL CFS data feed). Live scores during 2026 games come from the Squiggle API. Official SuperCoach prices and scores come from the SuperCoach API. The AFL injury list is scraped from afl.com.au's official injury page. Coaches votes for Brownlow are sourced from the AFLCA. No paid stat feeds are used, keeping the site free.

How are AFL finals predictions calculated?

The model simulates the remaining home-and-away matches to project final ladder positions, then runs the McIntyre Final 8 bracket forward with each prospective matchup's win probability calculated from current team strength. The bracket simulation produces a premiership win probability for every team and a finals-week-by-finals-week probability map (qualifying final, semi, prelim, grand final). All finals predictions update after every completed match.

Why does The Tip Jar's tip sometimes differ from bookmaker favourites?

The model uses a different approach to bookmakers — it builds team strength bottom-up from individual player projections across six domains, then converts to a margin. Bookmakers also factor in betting market flow (where the money is going), which can push a line away from pure model-driven value. When The Tip Jar disagrees with the bookies' favourite, the prediction is typically backed by a specific lineup or matchup advantage that the market hasn't fully priced — flagged as a value pick if the disagreement is large enough.

Does The Tip Jar show live AFL scores during games?

Yes. During AFL games, the home page and match pages display live scores in green, updated every ~2 minutes from the Squiggle live feed. Once the final siren goes and the AFL API confirms the match is concluded, the result flips to 'final' and the tip is graded correct or incorrect. The Season Accuracy page updates within ~5 minutes of the final game of each round.

Is The Tip Jar a tipping competition or just predictions?

The Tip Jar is a prediction site, not a tipping competition. We don't run a ladder of users' tips or take entries. The site provides the model's tip every round so you can use it as a guide for your own AFL tipping competition entries (work, club, app-based comps like ESPN Tips, AFL Tipping, Footy Industry, etc.). No signup is required and no personal information is collected.

Round Preview

AFL Round 15 2026 Predictions: Tips, Margins and Domain Splits

Published 17 June 2026

Round 15. Seven games, seven tips. Every match below is read through the model's domains: contest, territory, retention, chance creation and pressure, the five that carry weight (finishing is a dead zero). For each game you get the projected split, the tip, the margin and the win probability, plus a player worth a look where one stands out. Where the domain lean and the tip pull in different directions, that is the interesting part, and it is left in plain sight rather than tidied away.

Fremantle by 8. The contest is where this one is won.

FremantlevGeelong· Optus Stadium

Tip: Fremantle by 8. 60% win probability

Domain	FRE	GEE	Lean
contest	68%	32%	FRE
territory	42%	58%	GEE
retention	38%	62%	GEE
chance	85%	15%	FRE
pressure	37%	63%	GEE

Value: Hayden Young (FRE) Disposals 20+

Fremantle should own the contest, and at Optus that usually tells. Geelong keeps it close through retention and pressure, the two domains the Cats still lead, so the margin stays inside a couple of goals. Jeremy Cameron is the danger up forward if the Cats get their share. The Tip Jar has Fremantle.

Hawthorn by 13 on the road. The Hawks win the ball, the Suns win the niggle.

Gold CoastvHawthorn· People First Stadium

Tip: Hawthorn by 13. 66% win probability

Domain	GCS	HAW	Lean
contest	9%	91%	HAW
territory	11%	89%	HAW
retention	58%	42%	GCS
chance	3%	97%	HAW
pressure	77%	23%	GCS

Value: Christian Petracca (GCS) Disposals 25+

Hawthorn projects to win the contest and the chances that come off it, comfortably. Gold Coast's one foothold is pressure, where the model has the Suns well on top, and that is the number that could turn this into a grind. Ben King at three or more goals carries real value if the Suns get it forward enough. Hawthorn.

Adelaide by 12 at home. Melbourne wins the ball, Adelaide does more with it.

AdelaidevMelbourne· Adelaide Oval

Tip: Adelaide by 13. 66% win probability

Domain	ADE	MEL	Lean
contest	28%	72%	MEL
territory	38%	62%	MEL
retention	55%	45%	ADE
chance	77%	23%	ADE
pressure	57%	43%	ADE

Value: Trent Rivers (MEL) Disposals 20+

This is the split worth sitting with. Melbourne projects to win the contest and the territory, both clearly, and the model still lands on Adelaide. Retention, chance creation and pressure all lean the Crows, and at Adelaide Oval that is the heavier hand. The Tip Jar has Adelaide by two goals.

GWS by 12 at home. The lean says Carlton, the verdict says Giants.

Greater Western SydneyvCarlton· ENGIE Stadium

Tip: Greater Western Sydney by 12. 66% win probability

Domain	GWS	CAR	Lean
contest	50%	50%	CAR
territory	49%	51%	CAR
retention	34%	66%	CAR
chance	27%	73%	CAR
pressure	54%	46%	GWS

Value: Adam Cerra (CAR) Disposals 20+

The closest the model comes to disagreeing with itself this week. Carlton projects to win four of the five domains, most of them narrowly. The tip still goes the other way: home ground at ENGIE and the Giants' edge in creating chances are enough to override a thin contest read. That tension is the story here, not a contradiction. GWS.

Collingwood by 18 at the MCG. Territory is the whole story.

CollingwoodvPort Adelaide· MCG

Tip: Collingwood by 18. 72% win probability

Domain	COL	PTA	Lean
contest	34%	66%	PTA
territory	52%	48%	COL
retention	69%	31%	COL
chance	60%	40%	COL
pressure	51%	49%	COL

Value: Josh Daicos (COL) Disposals 25+

Port Adelaide projects to win the contest, and it will not matter much if Collingwood controls the ground the way the model expects. An 86 to 14 territory lean is the kind of number that turns clearances into field position and not much else. Collingwood, comfortably.

North Melbourne by 17. Every domain but one belongs to the Roos.

RichmondvNorth Melbourne· MCG

Tip: North Melbourne by 17. 71% win probability

Domain	RIC	NTH	Lean
contest	42%	58%	NTH
territory	17%	83%	NTH
retention	28%	72%	NTH
chance	4%	96%	NTH
pressure	77%	23%	RIC

Value: Colby McKercher (NTH) Disposals 20+

North Melbourne projects to win the contest, the territory, the retention and the chances, all of them by distance. Richmond's only answer is pressure, where the Tigers lead, and pressure on its own rarely covers a gap this wide. North Melbourne.

St Kilda by 5. The closest call on the card.

St KildavWestern Bulldogs· Marvel Stadium

Tip: St Kilda by 5. 56% win probability

Domain	STK	WBD	Lean
contest	70%	30%	STK
territory	26%	74%	WBD
retention	69%	31%	STK
chance	70%	30%	STK
pressure	60%	40%	STK

Value: Adam Treloar (WBD) Disposals 20+

The tightest game of the round, and the model still has a side. St Kilda projects to win the contest and to bring the pressure; the Bulldogs answer with territory and cleaner ball use. At 56 percent this is a genuine line-ball, not a lock, and the Tip Jar leans St Kilda. Adam Treloar at 20 or more disposals is the value if the Dogs run the game.

Top Fantasy Projections

Player	Team	Avg
Bailey Smith	GEE	118
Jordan Dawson	ADE	113
Harry Sheezel	NTH	112
Zach Merrett	ESS	109
Max Gawn	MEL	109
Nick Daicos	COL	108

Frequently Asked Questions

Who does The Tip Jar tip in AFL Round 15, 2026?

The Tip Jar tips Fremantle, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Greater Western Sydney, Collingwood, North Melbourne and St Kilda in Round 15. The margins range from Collingwood by 18 down to St Kilda by 5.

What is the closest game in AFL Round 15, 2026?

St Kilda versus the Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium. The Tip Jar has St Kilda by 5 at 56 percent, the only game on the card inside a single straight kick.

What are The Tip Jar's domains?

The model reads each match as six domains: contest, territory, retention, chance creation, pressure and finishing. Five carry weight; finishing sits at zero. The projected split for every Round 15 game is in the tables above.

How accurate is The Tip Jar?

Through Round 14 of 2026 the model is tipping at 75 percent, and went seven from seven in Round 14. The full record is on the season and proof pages.

See the full season record on the season tracker and the 2025 backtest on the model proof page.