AFL Preliminary Finals 2026: Fremantle Over Sydney, Hawthorn Over Brisbane
Sydney is the highest rated side in this model at 82 out of 100, is at home, and won its qualifying final by 53 points. Footy Tip Jar tips Fremantle by 14.
That disagreement is the point of the model. A power rating measures what a team has done across a season. A tip prices the 23 players who actually run out. Sydney named its side on Thursday evening without Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and James Jordon, all suspended, and without Callum Mills. A midfield missing those four is not the one rated number one.
The model has tipped 158 from 215 this season, 73.5 percent. Here is how it reads both preliminary finals.
Sydney vs Fremantle
The Tip Jar has Fremantle by 14 at the SCG.
Across the six domains these sides are close to level: Sydney holds a slight edge in the contest, Fremantle in chance creation. Availability is what splits them. Without Heeney, Warner, Jordon and Mills, the model prices a very different Sydney midfield to the one that beat Brisbane by 53 a fortnight ago. Projected score is Fremantle 109 to Sydney 95. Caleb Serong is the pick of the legs at 23 projected disposals against a 24 average, and Jye Amiss sits at 80 percent to kick two.
Hawthorn vs Brisbane Lions
The Tip Jar has Hawthorn by 6 at the MCG.
This is the tighter of the two at 58 percent. Brisbane rate ahead on chance creation, Hawthorn hold the other five domains by a fraction, and the MCG does the rest. Brisbane arrive off a 53 point semi final win over Adelaide, Hawthorn off a week's rest after accounting for Fremantle in the qualifying final. Projected score is Hawthorn 111 to Brisbane 105. Josh Battle is the strongest leg on the board at 86 percent for 15 disposals, with Mitch Lewis at 87 percent to goal.
FAQ
Why does the model tip against Sydney at home?
Availability. Sydney's named 23 for the preliminary final is missing Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and James Jordon to suspension, and Callum Mills to a knee injury. The power rating still has Sydney first because it reflects a full season of games already played. The tip prices the side that takes the field on Friday night, and on this read that side is 14 points short of Fremantle.
Which preliminary final is closer?
Hawthorn against Brisbane at the MCG. The model gives Hawthorn 58 percent and a 6 point margin, against 68 percent and 14 points for Fremantle at the SCG.
How accurate has the model been in 2026?
158 correct from 215 tips, 73.5 percent. That is the same figure shown on the Footy Tip Jar home page and season tracker, and it includes finals.
Do the value legs actually make money?
The singles have not. Across 331 bookmaker priced picks they have hit 63.4 percent, which is a high strike rate, but at the prices offered that is 29.19 units down and a return of minus 8.8 percent. We publish the running figure either way, because a strike rate with no price attached is not a result.
What is the Multi of the Week, and how has it gone?
One multi built from the best value legs of the round. It locks 25 minutes before the first bounce and never changes after that, so it settles honestly. Eight have settled and one landed, the Round 19 multi at $23.62. That is 15.62 units of profit and a return of 195.2 percent at an average price of $24.46. A low strike rate at long odds is the shape of the strategy, not a fault in it.
Where do I get the Brownlow guide?
At footytipjar.com/brownlow. It is free, and it covers a deterministic vote tip for every round, the season's Locks, and the full vote race with win probabilities and fair odds for every contender.
