2026 Brownlow Medal Tips: The Locks, Betting Value and Full Vote Race
Backing a Brownlow Medal favourite is a different bet to tipping a match winner: you are pricing 23 rounds of three-vote games, not one final scoreline. Footy Tip Jar's model prices every player's vote chance from the same six-domain data that drives its match tips, and updates the full field weekly. Here is how to read that pricing, where the value sits through Round 24, and what the model's most confident calls ("the Locks") actually are.
How to read Brownlow Medal betting value
A bookmaker's Brownlow market is priced on public perception as much as form, which is exactly where a model-derived number earns its keep. Footy Tip Jar's fair odds come from an XGBoost classifier that estimates each player's per-game probability of polling 3, 2 or 1 votes from about 90 features (disposals, contested ball, score involvements, team-relative shares and more), normalised within each match and run through a 2000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation across the season. The output is a win probability and a fair price for every player with a realistic chance, not just the shortlist a bookmaker quotes. Value in a market like this shows up as a gap: a player the model prices tighter than the bookmaker's number is worth a second look before the count.
This week's Brownlow Medal favourites and odds
Through Round 24, Nick Daicos (Collingwood) is the clear model favourite: 47 projected votes and a 53.8 percent win probability, fair odds around $1.77. Bailey Smith (Geelong) is the clearest alternative at 40 votes and a 30.1 percent chance, fair odds near $3.16. Behind them the field compresses fast: Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs) and Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) share third on 29 votes each at roughly a 2.4 percent chance, with Patrick Cripps (Carlton) and Max Gawn (Melbourne) tied on 27 votes at similar odds. Every one of these numbers moves as the remaining rounds are played and votes lock in, which is exactly why the guide below tracks it round by round rather than as a single pre-season call.
What are Footy Tip Jar's Brownlow Medal Locks?
The Locks are the model's most confident 3-vote calls each round, ranked by the size of the gap to the next-best player in that game. A wide gap means the model sees one player clearly clear of the field for Best on Ground honours in that match; a narrow gap means it is genuinely live between two or three players. For votes on completed games the model does not simulate, it allocates deterministically (highest-probability player gets 3, next gets 2, next gets 1), so a Lock from an already-played round is the model's settled read of that game, not a projection that can still move.
How to use this for Brownlow Medal betting
Compare the fair odds above against whatever your bookmaker is offering on the same player: a wider bookmaker price than the model's fair odds is where the value sits, and a narrower one is a market that has already caught up. The free form guide linked below carries this same pricing round by round for every remaining game, plus the season's full Locks list, so you are working from the model's actual confidence rather than reconstructing it from a single leaderboard snapshot.
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FAQ
Who is favourite to win the 2026 Brownlow Medal?
Through Round 24, Footy Tip Jar's model has Nick Daicos (Collingwood) as favourite with 47 projected votes, a 53.8 percent win probability and fair odds around $1.77.
What are the current 2026 Brownlow Medal odds?
Footy Tip Jar's fair odds through Round 24: Nick Daicos $1.77, Bailey Smith $3.16, with Marcus Bontempelli, Will Ashcroft, Patrick Cripps and Max Gawn further back around $39.
What are "The Locks" in the Footy Tip Jar Brownlow guide?
The Locks are the model's most confident 3-vote calls each round, ranked by the gap to the next-best player in that game. A wide gap means one player is clearly clear for Best on Ground; a narrow gap means the vote is genuinely live.
How does Footy Tip Jar predict the Brownlow Medal?
An XGBoost classifier estimates each player's per-game probability of polling 3, 2 or 1 votes from about 90 features, votes are allocated game by game in a 3-2-1 split, and a 2000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation across the season produces the projected vote totals, win probabilities and fair odds.
Is the Footy Tip Jar Brownlow Medal guide free?
Yes. Enter your email at footytipjar.com/brownlow to get a free personal copy, including a fixed tip for every round and the full season's Locks.