2026 Brownlow Medal Tips, Bets and Form Guide
Footy Tip Jar's free 2026 Brownlow Medal form guide gives a deterministic tip for every round, the season's locks (the votes the model is most confident in), and the full predicted vote race with win probabilities and fair odds for every contender.
What's in the Brownlow Medal guide
- A round-by-round Brownlow vote tip, not a live-only leaderboard
- The Locks: 3-vote calls ranked by confidence, for punters wanting the safest Brownlow bets
- Every game's predicted 3-2-1 vote split across the season
- The full predicted leaderboard with win probability and fair odds
2026 Brownlow Medal leader at every AFL club
- Collingwood: Nick Daicos, 49 predicted votes
- Geelong: Bailey Smith, 38 predicted votes
- Western Bulldogs: Marcus Bontempelli, 30 predicted votes
- Brisbane Lions: Will Ashcroft, 28 predicted votes
- Carlton: Patrick Cripps, 28 predicted votes
- Melbourne: Max Gawn, 27 predicted votes
- North Melbourne: Harry Sheezel, 26 predicted votes
- Port Adelaide: Zak Butters, 24 predicted votes
- Sydney: Isaac Heeney, 24 predicted votes
- Adelaide: Izak Rankine, 24 predicted votes
- Hawthorn: Jai Newcombe, 21 predicted votes
- Fremantle: Luke Jackson, 20 predicted votes
- Greater Western Sydney: Clayton Oliver, 18 predicted votes
- St Kilda: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, 18 predicted votes
- West Coast: Harley Reid, 14 predicted votes
- Gold Coast: Noah Anderson, 12 predicted votes
- Richmond: Tim Taranto, 8 predicted votes
- Essendon: Darcy Parish, 6 predicted votes
2026 Brownlow Medal odds and where the model sees value
- Footy Tip Jar prices every Brownlow Medal market off its own deterministic vote count, then compares that against the posted price. Odds shown are Sportsbet prices as at 11 September and may have changed. Value is our model probability multiplied by the price, so anything above 1.00 is a price we rate as too long.
Brownlow vote threshold markets
- To Poll a Vote. Our count has 51 of 130 priced runners clearing it: Mark Keane on 3 votes ($1.27), Beau McCreery on 3 votes ($1.54), Tim Membrey on 3 votes ($1.15). Best value: Sam Darcy at $3.90, 77.8% in our simulation, value 3.03; Esava Ratugolea at $2.95, 94.8% in our simulation, value 2.80.
- To Poll 10+ Votes. Our count has 22 of 41 priced runners clearing it: Clayton Oliver on 18 votes ($1.12), Shai Bolton on 15 votes ($1.06), Sam Walsh on 14 votes ($1.01). Best value: Logan Morris at $19.00, 40.0% in our simulation, value 7.59; John Noble at $7.50, 75.5% in our simulation, value 5.67.
- To Poll 15+ Votes. Our count has 11 of 26 priced runners clearing it: Max Gawn on 27 votes ($1.01), Harry Sheezel on 26 votes ($1.02), Zak Butters on 24 votes ($1.02). Best value: Jack Gunston at $14.00, 26.3% in our simulation, value 3.69; Clayton Oliver at $3.60, 89.7% in our simulation, value 3.23.
- To Poll 20+ Votes. Our count has 10 of 20 priced runners clearing it: Max Gawn on 27 votes ($1.31), Harry Sheezel on 26 votes ($1.61), Zak Butters on 24 votes ($2.10). Best value: Luke Jackson at $6.50, 56.8% in our simulation, value 3.69; Max Holmes at $12.50, 29.5% in our simulation, value 3.69.
- To Poll 25+ Votes. Our count has 4 of 14 priced runners clearing it: Patrick Cripps on 28 votes ($1.46), Will Ashcroft on 28 votes ($1.87), Max Gawn on 27 votes ($4.00). Best value: Zak Butters at $16.00, 43.8% in our simulation, value 7.00; Izak Rankine at $10.50, 43.7% in our simulation, value 4.59.
- To Poll 30+ Votes. Our count has 2 of 9 priced runners clearing it: Bailey Smith on 38 votes ($1.16), Marcus Bontempelli on 30 votes ($1.31). Best value: Max Gawn at $41.00, 23.2% in our simulation, value 9.53; Will Ashcroft at $21.00, 33.3% in our simulation, value 6.99.
Brownlow top 3, top 5 and top 10 finish markets
- Top 3 Finish. Nick Daicos is not priced in this market. Our count finishes 2 of 10 priced runners inside it: Bailey Smith on 38 votes ($1.07), Marcus Bontempelli on 30 votes ($1.15). Best value: Harry Sheezel at $67.00, 6.9% in our simulation, value 4.61; Max Gawn at $34.00, 11.8% in our simulation, value 4.00.
- Top 5 Finish. Nick Daicos is not priced in this market. Our count finishes 4 of 15 priced runners inside it: Bailey Smith on 38 votes ($1.01), Marcus Bontempelli on 30 votes ($1.03), Will Ashcroft on 28 votes ($2.00). Best value: Zak Butters at $34.00, 12.3% in our simulation, value 4.18; Harry Sheezel at $10.00, 30.0% in our simulation, value 3.00.
- Top 10 Finish. Our count finishes 7 of 21 priced runners inside it: Will Ashcroft on 28 votes ($1.07), Patrick Cripps on 28 votes ($1.05), Max Gawn on 27 votes ($1.83). Best value: Zak Butters at $5.00, 65.3% in our simulation, value 3.26; Luke Jackson at $13.00, 16.4% in our simulation, value 2.13.
- Top 20 Finish. Our count finishes 10 of 26 priced runners inside it: Max Gawn on 27 votes ($1.04), Harry Sheezel on 26 votes ($1.11), Zak Butters on 24 votes ($1.18). Best value: Clayton Oliver at $4.90, 69.7% in our simulation, value 3.42; Shai Bolton at $12.00, 25.8% in our simulation, value 3.10.
Brownlow group and special-field markets
- Group B: our count has Max Gawn on 27 votes, 49.8% in our simulation, priced $3.75. The market agrees, Max Gawn is favourite at $3.75.
- Group C: our count has Jack Gunston on 13 votes, 66.8% in our simulation, priced $3.00. The market favourite is Jacob van Rooyen at $2.50, so this is a disagreement.
- Most Votes Without Nick Daicos: our count has Bailey Smith on 38 votes, 89.1% in our simulation, priced $1.72. The market agrees, Bailey Smith is favourite at $1.72.
- Most Votes, Last 8 Rounds (rounds 17-24): our count has Izak Rankine on 19 votes, 45.0% in our simulation, priced $2.25. The market favourite is Nick Daicos at $2.00, so this is a disagreement.
Brownlow round of declared winner
- We make it Round 19, a 66.1% chance in our simulation, priced $13.00 for a value of 8.59. The market favourite is Round 21 at $2.50. The market settles on the round it becomes mathematically impossible for Daicos to lose or tie.
Brownlow winning margin
- Our count gives the winner a 11-vote margin, landing in the 11+ votes band at $2.12, 53.2% in our simulation. The market's shortest band is the same one at $2.12.
Brownlow specials the model rates a YES
- Nick Daicos to poll in 20+ games: we say YES (20 games), 56.8% in our simulation at $13.00, value 7.38.
- Nick Daicos to poll 49+ votes: we say YES (49 votes), 54.3% in our simulation at $11.00, value 5.97.
- Nick Daicos to poll 48+ votes: we say YES (49 votes), 62.9% in our simulation at $7.00, value 4.40.
- Nick Daicos polling 40 or more votes than the next highest for Collingwood: we say YES (by 41), 62.9% in our simulation at $6.00, value 3.77.
- Daicos brothers to poll 55+ votes combined: we say YES (57 votes), 69.4% in our simulation at $5.00, value 3.47.
- Nick Daicos to poll 47+ votes: we say YES (49 votes), 70.7% in our simulation at $4.00, value 2.83.
Where our Brownlow count disagrees with the market
- Group C: our count has Jack Gunston in front on 13 votes, a 66.8% shot in our simulation and priced $3.00, while the market favourite is Jacob van Rooyen at $2.50.
- Most Votes, Last 8 Rounds (rounds 17-24): our count has Izak Rankine in front on 19 votes, a 45.0% shot in our simulation and priced $2.25, while the market favourite is Nick Daicos at $2.00.
- Round of Declared Winner: we make it Round 19 at 66.1% ($13.00), while the market favours Round 21 at $2.50.
How the 2026 Brownlow Medal prediction is made
An XGBoost classifier estimates each player's per-game probability of polling 3, 2 or 1 votes from about 90 features, including disposals, contested possessions, score involvements, goals, win or loss context and team-relative shares. Votes are allocated game by game in an exactly 3-2-1 split. Completed matches use deterministic argmax allocation, so the published vote board is a fixed count rather than an average. A 2000-iteration Monte Carlo season simulation then produces the win probabilities, podium chances and fair odds. Market prices are a comparator only, never an input to the model.
The guide is free - enter your email at footytipjar.com/brownlow to get your personal copy of the full 2026 Brownlow Medal form guide. See the live, continuously updated version of the same model on the 2026 Brownlow Medal predictor and odds leaderboard.
